The Providence Friars visit the Creighton Bluejays at CHI Health Center Omaha on February 28, a matchup that holds significant implications in the Big East conference race. As both teams jockey for positioning in the conference standings, this game takes on added importance, with the outcome potentially altering the trajectory of each team's season. With neither team in contention for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid, the focus shifts to the conference tournament, where a strong finish could bolster their chances of securing the automatic bid.
The margin between these evenly matched teams is razor-thin, with the model predicting a narrow 82-80 Providence victory. Recent form suggests a competitive contest, as Providence has gone 3-2 over its last five games, including a hard-fought win over DePaul, while Creighton has stumbled to a 2-3 mark, capped by a lopsided loss to St. John's. As the Friars and Bluejays clash, the result will have a direct impact on the conference landscape, making this a crucial game for both teams as they navigate the final stretch of the regular season.
Averaging 17.3 points per game, the team's leading scorer is matched by and , who have been instrumental in Providence's push for a stronger finish to the season. With a record of 12-15, including 5-11 in the Big East, the team has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in their recent wins, such as the 71-68 victory at DePaul on February 21. His 45% three-point shooting has been a notable aspect of ' game, as he contributes 15.7 points per game, complementing the scoring efforts of Jason Edwards and Jaylin Sellers.
The team's recent form has been marked by inconsistency, with losses to St. John's and Seton Hall in their last five games, but wins against DePaul and Butler have showcased their potential. With providing 12.1 points and 4.5 rebounds per game, and offering 8.6 points and 5.1 rebounds per game, the team has a balanced attack. His ability to score and rebound has made Ryan Mela a valuable asset, and the combination of Jason Edwards, Jaylin Sellers, and Stefan Vaaks has been crucial in their victories, including the 90-72 win over DePaul on February 7, where the team's offense clicked into high gear.
Averaging 12.1 points per game, has been a key contributor to Creighton's offense, while his 3.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game demonstrate his all-around ability. The team's leading scorer has not been a single dominant force, but rather a balanced effort, with and also averaging over 10 points per game. His 10.9 points per game make Austin Swartz a consistent threat, and his ability to complement Josh Dix has been crucial in Creighton's successes.
With a record of 14-14, Creighton has experienced a mix of highs and lows, including a 91-84 win at UConn and a 69-68 victory over Seton Hall in their last five games, but also losses to St. John's and Villanova. ' 3.9 assists per game have been vital in facilitating the team's offense, and his 10.1 points per game make him a reliable scoring option, alongside , who averages 8.7 points and 4.0 rebounds per game, providing a spark off the bench. The team's recent form, including a loss to DePaul and a win over Seton Hall, suggests they are capable of competing with strong opponents, but consistency remains a challenge.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Jaylin Sellers and Jasen Green will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Sellers, a high-scoring threat for Providence, will face a stiff challenge from Green, Creighton's versatile big man. Green's ability to rebound and defend will be tested by Sellers' scoring prowess, and if he can limit Sellers' production, it could significantly impact Providence's offense.
Green's defensive capabilities, combined with his own scoring potential, make him a crucial component in this matchup. If he can contain Sellers and also contribute on the offensive end, Creighton will have a significant advantage. Conversely, if Sellers can outmaneuver Green and find openings to score, Providence will be well-positioned to succeed. The outcome of this individual battle will have a profound impact on the team's overall performance, making it the most critical matchup to watch in this game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Providence
82
Creighton
80
Based on the model's prediction, which gives Providence a 54.1% win probability with a projected 82-80 score, I disagree and believe Creighton will emerge victorious. The primary reason for my dissent is that Creighton's home-court advantage will prove decisive, as the model's numbers do not appear to adequately account for the Bluejays' ability to perform in front of their own fans, which could provide the necessary boost to overcome Providence's slight edge in the projection.
Tournament Stakes
As the season enters its final stretch, both Providence and Creighton are focused on positioning themselves for a deep run in the Big East conference tournament, their only viable path to postseason play. A win for either team would not only bolster their conference standing but also provide a crucial boost in momentum heading into the tournament. For Providence, a victory would help them climb the conference ladder, while Creighton is looking to capitalize on home-court advantage to gain an edge in the tightly packed middle of the conference standings. With both teams having struggled against stronger opponents, as evidenced by their Quad 1 and Quad 2 records, this game takes on added significance as a Quad 2 opportunity for Providence and a Quad 3 test for Creighton, making it a high-stakes matchup that will ultimately reveal which program is better equipped to make a surprise push in the conference tournament - and it's clear that only one of these teams is truly built for a postseason run.