As the college basketball season hits its stride, the importance of resume-building wins cannot be overstated, especially for teams like Indiana, who are solidly in the tournament field but still seeking a marquee victory to bolster their case. The Hoosiers will get their chance to do just that when they host Purdue at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, a venue that has been notoriously difficult for opponents to leave with a win. With both teams boasting impressive NET rankings - Indiana at 35 and Purdue at 10 - this matchup has all the makings of a thriller, and the CHD Scout prediction has Indiana emerging victorious by a slim 1.2-point margin, with a 54.5% win probability.
Purdue, firmly on the top-16 seed line, is looking to bounce back from a pair of losses in their last three games, while Indiana is seeking to regain momentum after a loss in their most recent outing. The Boilermakers have been impressive in Quad 1 games, boasting a 6-3 record, but their recent form has been a cause for concern. Meanwhile, Indiana's quad record tells a story of inconsistency, with an 0-6 mark in Quad 1 games, but a perfect 7-0 record in Quad 4 contests. A win over Purdue would not only give the Hoosiers a much-needed boost but also provide a significant Quad 1 victory to strengthen their tournament resume.
CHD Scout Prediction
Purdue
75
Indiana
77
The Vegas odds have Purdue as a 4.5-point favorite, but the CHD Scout prediction suggests that Indiana has a slight edge, and with the home crowd behind them, they may be able to pull off the upset. Unfortunately, there's no notable player momentum data to suggest any individual is particularly hot or cold heading into this matchup, so it will likely come down to which team can execute their game plan more effectively.
In the end, I'm predicting a narrow Indiana victory, 77-75, as the Hoosiers' home-court advantage and desperation for a Quad 1 win prove to be the difference-makers. With the tournament selection committee keeping a close eye on these two Big Ten powers, a win for either team would be a significant statement - and I believe Indiana has just enough to get the job done.