As the college basketball season hits its stride, the margin for error is shrinking for bubble teams, and Monday's matchup between Rhode Island and Dayton is a perfect example. Both teams are desperate for quality wins to bolster their tournament resumes, and a victory here could go a long way in shaping their postseason fate. The Flyers, currently sitting at 85 in the NET rankings, are in dire need of a marquee win to offset their 0-2 record in Quad 1 games. Meanwhile, the Rams, ranked 125 in the NET, are looking to build on their recent momentum and prove they can hang with the A10's top tier.
Dayton, favored by 8.5 points according to betmgm, is expected to come out on top, with the CHD Scout prediction giving them a 71.5% win probability and a projected 6.1-point margin of victory. The Flyers have been inconsistent of late, with a recent record of L-L-W, but they've been nearly unbeatable at home, where they'll look to exploit Rhode Island's struggles on the road. The Rams, on the other hand, have shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in their last three games, where they've gone W-W-L. However, their Quad 2 record of 3-3 and lack of signature wins leave them with plenty to prove.
CHD Scout Prediction
Rhode Island
68
Dayton
74
In terms of tournament implications, this matchup is classified as a Quad 2 game for Rhode Island and a Quad 3 game for Dayton. A win for either team would be a significant boost to their resume, but the Flyers' higher NET ranking and more favorable schedule make this a more crucial game for the Rams. With the A10 tournament still weeks away, every game counts, and a loss for either team could put them in a precarious position.
Given the stakes and the momentum of both teams, I predict Dayton will come out on top, 74-68. The Flyers' home-court advantage and slightly stronger overall record should give them the edge they need to take down the Rams. While Rhode Island has shown it can compete with the best in the A10, Dayton's experience and depth should ultimately prove to be too much for them to handle. Look for the Flyers to assert their dominance early and hold off a late Rams surge to secure a crucial win and keep their tournament hopes alive.