As the college basketball season enters its final stretch, the margins between tournament contenders and bubble teams are thinner than ever. For Southern California, a 15-5 record and 51st spot in the NET rankings have them firmly on the bubble, with a 1-3 record in Quad 1 games weighing heavily on their resume. A home win against Rutgers, currently ranked 169th in the NET, might seem like a straightforward task, but the Scarlet Knights' ability to pull off upsets makes this a high-stakes encounter for the Trojans.
USC's recent form has been inconsistent, with a win-loss-loss record in their last three games, and they can't afford to drop this one if they want to stay in the tournament conversation. Rutgers, on the other hand, is desperate for quality wins to bolster their own tournament hopes, and a Quad 1 victory on the road would be a massive boost to their resume. The Scarlet Knights have struggled against top-tier opposition, with a 0-7 record in Quad 1 games, but they've shown flashes of brilliance in their wins.
According to the CHD Scout prediction, USC is favored to win by 9.2 points, with a 79.9% win probability. While this might seem like a comfortable margin, Rutgers' unpredictability and USC's recent inconsistency make this a more intriguing matchup than the numbers suggest. Unfortunately, there's no player momentum data to suggest any individual is particularly hot or cold heading into this game, so it'll come down to which team can execute their game plan more effectively.
CHD Scout Prediction
Rutgers
70
USC
80
With the tournament bubble watching, this game matters for both teams, albeit in different ways. For USC, a win would help solidify their position and alleviate some pressure, while a loss would send them further down the bubble pecking order. For Rutgers, a win would be a massive upset and a much-needed injection of life into their tournament hopes. In the end, I predict USC will come out on top, 80-70, thanks to their superior talent and home-court advantage. The Trojans' ability to capitalize on Rutgers' struggles in Quad 1 games will be the deciding factor, and they'll take a crucial step towards securing a tournament berth.