In a stunning turn of events, Saint Francis pulled off a significant upset at the Jeffery P. Hazell Athletics Center, defeating the University of New Haven 73-67. The six-point margin of victory belies the significance of this result, as Saint Francis, ranked 353 in the NET rankings, took down a New Haven team that sits 32 spots higher at 321. The first half saw Saint Francis take control, outscoring New Haven 41-32, and although New Haven narrowed the gap in the second half, outscoring Saint Francis 35-32, it was not enough to overcome the deficit.
The implications of this upset are substantial, particularly in terms of seed line implications, as it throws a wrench into the postseason prospects of both teams. New Haven's loss to a lower-ranked opponent will likely drop them in the rankings, while Saint Francis's victory could provide a much-needed boost to their own tournament hopes. A closer examination of the team statistics reveals that Saint Francis's ability to maintain a lead despite being outscored in the second half speaks to their resilience and determination, and sets the stage for a more in-depth analysis of the key performances that contributed to this unexpected outcome.
A 29-point, 10-rebound performance was not to be found in the Saint Francis box score, but instead, the team relied on balanced scoring from its top players. His 19-point effort, coupled with 9 rebounds, made Gestin Liberis a key contributor to the Saint Francis victory, as he shot a perfect 7-7 from the field and 1-1 from three-point range. With the game on the line, the ability of players like Liberis to convert from the field and the free throw line proved crucial, as evidenced by his 4-4 mark from the charity stripe.
The freshman standout Zion Russell and Skylar Wicks also played significant roles in the outcome, with Russell's 14 points and 3 assists helping to create scoring opportunities for his teammates. Erupting for 14 points was not the only aspect of Russell's game, as he also grabbed 4 rebounds and shot 4-4 from the free throw line. Meanwhile, Wicks' 13 points and 6 rebounds provided additional firepower, as his 5-5 mark from the free throw line helped to seal the 73-67 victory for Saint Francis.
His 22 points on 9-15 shooting from Jabri Fitzpatrick wasn't enough to propel New Haven to a win, as the team ultimately fell short. Despite the loss, Fitzpatrick's scoring output was a notable bright spot, with his 2-6 mark from three-point range being a relatively efficient showing. The team's leading scorer, Fitzpatrick, also chipped in with 2 assists, though his lack of rebounding presence was a concern.
Finishing with 9 points apiece, Najimi George and Kyle Kearson provided complementary scoring, but their overall performances were stifled by the Saint Francis defense. George's 2-8 shooting from the field and 0-4 mark from beyond the arc were particularly struggles, though he did manage to get to the free throw line and convert 5 of his 8 attempts. Kearson, on the other hand, was efficient from three-point range, hitting 3 of his 4 attempts, but his overall impact was limited by his lack of involvement in other areas of the game.
A notable deviation from season averages was seen in the performance of New Haven's supporting cast, with Andre Pasha's assist numbers standing out, as his 5 assists were more than three times his season average, while his scoring output was 5.4 points below his typical mark, with Pasha finishing the night with 5 points.
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Final
The pre-game prediction, which favored New Haven by 8.1 points, proved to be inaccurate as Saint Francis emerged victorious by 6 points. This outcome was a departure from the expected result, highlighting the unpredictability of the game. The prediction model's failure to account for the actual performance of the teams on the court led to a significant discrepancy between the projected and actual outcomes.
The game's outcome can be attributed to a few key factors, particularly the significant disparity in effective field goal percentage between the two teams. Saint Francis's impressive 60.9% eFG% rate, a notable increase from their season average, allowed them to maintain a strong offensive presence throughout the game. Additionally, New Haven's struggles on the offensive glass, with an unusually low 10.0% OREB rate, hindered their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities and limited their overall production. These factors, among others, ultimately contributed to Saint Francis's decisive victory, as they were able to outperform New Haven in key areas and secure the win.
The outcome of this contest has significant implications for both teams' postseason aspirations, as they both rely on winning the NEC conference tournament to advance to the NCAA Tournament. Saint Francis's victory bolsters their conference tournament positioning, potentially improving their seeding and path to the championship. Meanwhile, New Haven's loss may drop them in the conference standings, forcing them to navigate a more challenging bracket. Given the low NET rankings of both teams, it's clear that their focus remains on the conference tournament, rather than broader postseason considerations. With both teams having struggled against higher-tier opponents, as evidenced by their combined 0-8 record against Quad 1 and 2 teams, this win for Saint Francis serves as a crucial morale boost, and a testament to their ability to capitalize on winnable games, a trait that will be essential if they hope to make a deep run in the NEC tournament - and Saint Francis's season is now defined by its potential to peak at precisely the right moment.