The University of Dayton will host the Saint Louis University Billikens at UD Arena on February 24, in a matchup that carries significant implications for the Atlantic 10 conference race. As the Billikens, now simply Saint Louis, look to solidify their position atop the conference standings, Dayton seeks to bolster its chances of a strong seeding in the upcoming conference tournament. With the regular season winding down, the margins between teams in the Atlantic 10 are growing increasingly slim, making each game a crucial test of endurance and resolve.
This contest pits two teams with differing postseason trajectories against each other, as Saint Louis aims to fine-tune its game ahead of the NCAA Tournament, while Dayton must focus on gaining momentum for a potential conference tournament run. The Flyers, with their recent 4-1 stretch, have shown glimpses of the form that could make them a formidable opponent in the postseason. However, they face a daunting task in Saint Louis, which has consistently demonstrated its prowess throughout the season. The model prediction may favor Saint Louis, but the narrow gap between these teams suggests that the outcome is far from certain, setting the stage for a closely contested and potentially pivotal matchup.
Averaging 12.7 points per game, has been a key contributor to Saint Louis's impressive 25-2 record, with the team boasting a 13-1 mark in Atlantic 10 play. The team's leading scorer is not a single dominant force, but rather a balanced attack, with and also averaging double figures, at 12.1 and 10.8 points per game, respectively. His 4.3 assists per game make Robbie Avila a vital component in the team's offense, and his ability to facilitate has been crucial in the team's recent wins, including an 88-75 victory over VCU on February 20.
With a Quad 1 record of 2-0 and a strong 4-2 mark in Quad 2 games, Saint Louis has proven itself to be a formidable opponent against top-tier competition. 's 10.7 points per game and 's 10.0 points per game have been essential to the team's success, with both players also contributing on the glass, averaging 5.5 and 4.1 rebounds per game, respectively. His 45% three-point shooting is not a notable aspect of any of these players' games, but the team's overall balance and depth have been key factors in their recent form, which has seen them win four of their last five games, including an 86-59 rout of Loyola Chicago on February 13, with Dion Brown and Trey Green playing important roles in the team's victories.
Averaging 14.5 points per game, has been crucial to Dayton's success, with his ability to score and create for others. His 3.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game have made him a well-rounded contributor, and the team's leading scorer has been instrumental in their recent winning streak. With a record of 18-9, including a 9-5 mark in the Atlantic 10, Dayton has shown resilience, particularly in their last five games, where they have won four consecutive contests, including victories over Duquesne, George Mason, and Davidson.
The team's strong recent form can also be attributed to the contributions of , whose 15.9 points per game lead the team, and , who has been a force in the paint, averaging 11.9 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. Additionally, has provided a spark off the bench, with his 8.4 points and 5.5 rebounds per game, while has been a steady presence, averaging 8.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game. His 2.8 assists per game have been vital in facilitating the team's offense, and his all-around skills will be important as Dayton looks to continue their winning ways against Saint Louis.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Saint Louis's Dion Brown and Dayton's Amaël L'Etang will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Brown, a versatile forward, will need to contain L'Etang's scoring prowess while also exploiting his relatively low rebounding numbers. If Brown can outmuscle L'Etang on the glass and limit his scoring opportunities, it could give Saint Louis a significant advantage. Conversely, if L'Etang can use his size and athleticism to overpower Brown, it could create a significant mismatch that Dayton can exploit.
L'Etang's ability to score in the post and from the perimeter makes him a difficult matchup for Brown, who will need to be disciplined in his defensive approach. Brown's own scoring ability will also be crucial, as he will need to keep pace with L'Etang's production to ensure that Saint Louis remains competitive. The winner of this individual battle will likely have a significant impact on the overall outcome of the game, making it a fascinating subplot to watch.
CHD Scout Prediction
Saint Louis
81
Dayton
72
The model predicts a Saint Louis victory, 81-72, with a 79.4% win probability, and I agree with this assessment. Given the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Saint Louis sitting at 22 and Dayton at 84, it is reasonable to expect the Billikens to emerge victorious. Specifically, the large gap in NET rankings suggests that Saint Louis has consistently performed at a higher level than Dayton throughout the season, which leads me to believe that they will be able to outexecute the Flyers and secure a win.
Tournament Stakes
As the regular season winds down, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams' postseason aspirations. For Saint Louis, a win would bolster their already strong NCAA Tournament resume, potentially improving their seeding in the process. With a 2-0 record in Quad 1 games and a 4-2 mark in Quad 2 contests, the Billikens are well-positioned to make a deep run, and a victory over Dayton would only add to their momentum. On the other hand, Dayton's postseason hopes are squarely focused on winning the Atlantic 10 conference tournament, as their 0-5 record in Quad 1 games has all but eliminated their at-large chances. While a win over Saint Louis would be a significant upset, it would still only serve as a confidence booster heading into the conference tournament, rather than a genuine resume-booster. Ultimately, a Saint Louis victory would be a testament to their strength as a legitimate NCAA Tournament contender, while a Dayton win would be a fleeting moral victory in an otherwise lost season.