In a stunning upset, Dayton defeated Saint Louis University 77-62 at UD Arena, handing the Saint Louis Billikens a 15-point loss. The margin of victory is all the more surprising given the significant disparity in NET rankings, with the Dayton Flyers entering the contest at 84, a full 62 spots below their opponents. The first half saw Dayton build a commanding 44-28 lead, which ultimately proved insurmountable for Saint Louis.
The final score and halftime margin reveal a great deal about the dynamics of the game, as Dayton's ability to maintain a significant advantage throughout suggests a strong team performance. Despite a slightly more competitive second half, in which Saint Louis outscored Dayton 34-33, the Billikens were unable to overcome the deficit established in the first 20 minutes. The implications of this result are likely to be felt in the seed line projections, as a loss of this magnitude could have a significant impact on Saint Louis's postseason prospects.
A 26-point, 10-rebound performance from Amaël L'Etang set the tone for Dayton, as his versatility on the court allowed the team to maintain control throughout the game. His 3 blocks also demonstrated L'Etang's defensive prowess, complementing his impressive scoring output. With the game on the line, Javon Bennett's 17 points and 4 assists played a crucial role in securing the win for Dayton, his 3 three-pointers helping to stretch the defense and create opportunities for his teammates.
Erupting for 17 points, Bennett's ability to score from beyond the arc proved valuable, as did his 5 rebounds, which helped Dayton dominate the boards. In support, Jordan Derkack's 14 points, including 2 three-pointers, provided a secondary scoring option, his 5 rebounds also contributing to the team's overall rebounding effort. His efficient shooting, particularly from three-point range, allowed Derkack to make the most of his opportunities, rounding out a balanced performance from Dayton's top players.
Finishing with 24 points, Kellen Thames' effort was a notable bright spot for Saint Louis, as his 9-14 shooting from the field and 5-7 mark from the free throw line helped keep his team within striking distance for much of the game. Despite the loss, Thames' performance was a testament to his scoring ability, and his seven rebounds were a significant contribution to the team's overall rebounding effort.
The team's supporting cast, however, was unable to provide sufficient firepower to complement Thames' output, as Dion Brown's 15 points and seven rebounds, although solid, were not enough to overcome the deficit. His two three-pointers were a highlight, but the lack of assists from Brown and the rest of the team hindered their ability to create scoring opportunities for others. Robbie Avila's 10 points, including two three-pointers, were a modest contribution, but ultimately, the team's offense was stifled by Dayton's defense, which limited Avila and other Saint Louis players to subpar shooting performances.
A 2-point night from Quentin Jones — 7.7 below his season average — highlighted the struggles of the Saint Louis supporting cast, with his 1 assist also falling short of his typical 2.9 assists per game, and his 4 rebounds barely meeting his season average of 4.1 rebounds per game.
CHD Scout Report Card
INCORRECTPredicted
Final
The pre-game prediction proved to be misguided, as Dayton emerged victorious by a significant margin, defying the expected outcome by a substantial 25 points. This disparity highlights the unpredictability of college basketball, where teams can deviate from their typical performance and upend expectations. In this case, the model's error stemmed from its failure to account for Dayton's ability to outperform its season averages and Saint Louis's uncharacteristic struggles.
A closer examination of the team statistics reveals that the decisive factors in this game were Dayton's exceptional shooting and Saint Louis's inability to replicate its usual offensive efficiency. Dayton's effective field goal percentage and three-point shooting percentage both surpassed their season averages, indicating a high level of accuracy and potency from the field. Conversely, Saint Louis's eFG% and 3PT% fell short of their season averages, suggesting a lack of rhythm and cohesion on offense. These disparities ultimately tipped the scales in favor of Dayton, allowing them to secure a convincing victory.
The outcome of this contest has significant implications for both teams' postseason aspirations, albeit in vastly different ways. For Dayton, the victory, albeit a Quad 1 win, does little to alter their at-large prospects, which remain nonexistent; their sole path to the NCAA Tournament remains winning the Atlantic 10 conference tournament. In contrast, Saint Louis, a projected NCAA Tournament team, absorbs a Quad 2 loss, which may impact their seeding, potentially costing them a more favorable position in the bracket. While their overall profile remains strong, this setback could lead to a slightly lower seed, underscoring the importance of their remaining regular-season games in solidifying their tournament standing. Ultimately, this loss serves as a stark reminder that even the most formidable teams can stumble, and Saint Louis's postseason trajectory now hinges on their ability to rebound from this setback.