As we approach the midpoint of conference play, the margin for error is dwindling for teams on the NCAA tournament bubble. For St. Bonaventure, a Quad 1 opportunity awaits in the form of a visit from the conference's top dog, Saint Louis. With a 1-5 record in A10 play, the Bonnies desperately need a quality win to bolster their tournament resume, which currently boasts a lackluster 0-2 mark against Quad 1 opponents. A victory over the 22nd-ranked Billikens would not only inject life into their postseason hopes but also provide a much-needed boost to their NET ranking, currently sitting at 144.
Saint Louis, on the other hand, is cruising along with a 6-0 conference record and an 18-1 overall mark. Projected as a top-4 seed, the Billikens are looking to maintain their momentum and continue to build their case for a high seed in the NCAA tournament. With a perfect 9-0 record against Quad 4 opponents and a 6-0 mark against Quad 3 foes, Travis Ford's squad has been taking care of business against lesser opponents. However, their Quad 2 record is a bit of a concern, with the Billikens holding a 0-1 mark in such games.
According to the CHD Scout prediction, Saint Louis is favored to win by 9.4 points, with St. Bonaventure holding just a 19.6% win probability. While the Bonnies have shown flashes of brilliance, their inconsistent play has hindered their ability to string together meaningful wins. With no notable player momentum to speak of, St. Bonaventure must rely on a collective effort to pull off the upset.
CHD Scout Prediction
Saint Louis
83
St. Bonaventure
73
Given the significant tournament implications at play, this matchup holds tremendous importance for both teams. For St. Bonaventure, a win would be a monumental step towards legitimacy, while a loss would further entrench them in the A10 cellar. As for Saint Louis, a victory would solidify their grip on the conference lead and continue to build their case for a top seed. With the Billikens' impressive quad record and superior NET ranking, it's difficult to envision a scenario where they don't come out on top.
In the end, I predict Saint Louis will emerge victorious, winning by a margin of around 10 points. The Billikens' balanced attack and stout defense should prove too much for the Bonnies to handle, ultimately dealing a significant blow to St. Bonaventure's already slim tournament hopes.