The Saint Mary's Gaels, currently projected as a top-4 seed, are set to face off against the Washington State Cougars, who are desperately seeking quality wins to bolster their tournament resume, with the Cougars averaging 76.6 points per game over their last five contests, but being outscored by a slim margin of 0.4 points per game. This matchup promises to be an intriguing one, with Washington State looking to capitalize on their recent uptick in scoring, having put up 104 points against Portland and 70 against Seattle U, but also having suffered significant losses, including a 30-point drubbing at the hands of Gonzaga. Saint Mary's, on the other hand, has been on a tear, outscoring their opponents by an average of 16.6 points over their last five games, with their sole loss in that stretch coming at the hands of Gonzaga, a 73-65 defeat.
As we delve into the individual players who will be making a significant impact in this game, it's essential to consider the recent form and trends of the key contributors.
Key Matchups
Saint Mary's has been led by their stifling defense, which has allowed a mere 61.6 points per game over their last five outings, with their opponents shooting a combined 38.5% from the field. This defensive prowess will undoubtedly be tested by Washington State's offense, which has shown flashes of brilliance, including a 92-point outburst against Santa Clara. However, the Cougars have also struggled with consistency, having been held to just 53 points by Gonzaga and 64 by Oregon State. The Gaels' ability to contain Washington State's scoring threats matters in determining the outcome of this contest. Notably, Saint Mary's has been able to limit their opponents' three-point shooting, allowing just 28.5% from beyond the arc over their last five games, which could pose a significant challenge for Washington State's offense, which has relied heavily on the three-ball, attempting an average of 24.4 three-pointers per game over their last five contests.
The CHD Scout prediction has Saint Mary's emerging victorious by a margin of 15.6 points, with Washington State's win probability sitting at a mere 10.1%.
CHD Scout Prediction
Saint Mary's
82
Washington State
66
This prediction is largely based on the significant disparity in defensive efficiency between the two teams, with Saint Mary's boasting a defensive efficiency rating of 86.2, compared to Washington State's 101.1. Furthermore, the Gaels have been exceptional at limiting their opponents' rebounding opportunities, allowing just 28.4 rebounds per game over their last five outings, which could mitigate Washington State's advantage on the glass. The Cougars, on the other hand, have struggled to contain their opponents' scoring, allowing an average of 77 points per game over their last five contests, which could prove costly against a Saint Mary's offense that has been clicking on all cylinders, averaging 78.2 points per game over their last five outings.
As we examine the tournament stakes for both teams, it's clear that a win for Washington State would be a monumental upset, potentially catapulting them back into the bubble conversation.
Tournament Stakes
Conversely, a loss would likely dealt a significant blow to their already slim tournament hopes, leaving them with a daunting task to accumulate enough quality wins to warrant consideration. For Saint Mary's, a win would further solidify their position as a top-4 seed, while a loss would introduce some uncertainty into their seeding prospects. The Gaels' ability to navigate this challenging road contest will be essential in maintaining their current trajectory, and a victory would serve as a reflection of their resilience and adaptability. Notably, Washington State's recent wins over Portland and Seattle U have helped to offset some of the damage inflicted by their earlier losses, but they still require a strong finish to the season to have any hope of sneaking into the tournament field.
In terms of recent trends, Washington State has shown a propensity for inconsistency, having followed up a 30-point loss to Gonzaga with a 92-point outburst against Santa Clara, only to be held to 64 points by Oregon State. This unpredictability makes it challenging to anticipate how they will perform against Saint Mary's, but one constant has been their struggles on the defensive end, where they have allowed an average of 77 points per game over their last five contests. The Gaels, on the other hand, have been remarkably consistent, with their sole loss in their last five games coming at the hands of Gonzaga. Their ability to contain Washington State's offense, which has averaged 76.6 points per game over their last five outings, matters in determining the outcome of this contest. Saint Mary's has limited their opponents to just 38.5% shooting from the field over their last five games, which could pose a significant challenge for Washington State's offense, particularly if they are unable to get their three-point shot falling, having attempted an average of 24.4 three-pointers per game over their last five contests.