In a stunning upset, Colorado State (93 NET) handed San Diego State (44 NET) a 9-point defeat, 83-74, on the road at Moby Arena. The Rams' victory marked a significant upset, given the Aztecs' higher NET ranking and potential implications for their NCAA tournament seeding.
The margin and team stats reveal a closely contested game, with Colorado State taking a 13-point lead into the second half and San Diego State closing the gap to just four points in the final minutes. The Rams' advantage in the second half was largely maintained, allowing them to secure the win and pull off the upset.
Jase Butler's performance was a driving force behind Colorado State's 83-74 victory over San Diego State. The senior guard delivered a standout effort, contributing 25 points to the Rams' cause. His shooting efficiency was impressive, with a 62.5% field goal percentage and a 66.7% three-point conversion rate. Butler's ability to knock down shots from beyond the arc (4-6 3PT) and convert at the free throw line (11-12 FT) proved to be a significant asset for the Rams.
Carey Booth and Brandon Rechsteiner also played key roles in the win. Booth's well-rounded game saw him contribute 22 points, five rebounds, and two assists, while also making an impact on the defensive end with a block. Rechsteiner's 16 points came from a more unpredictable source, with five of his six three-point attempts finding the net. Despite a 41.7% field goal percentage, Rechsteiner's ability to make shots from beyond the arc helped to keep the San Diego State defense on its heels.
Reese Dixon-Waters' 16 points were a bright spot for San Diego State, but ultimately fell short in their bid for a comeback. He shot efficiently from the field, converting 4 of his 11 attempts and sinking all 6 of his free throws. However, his inability to create for his teammates and contribute in other facets of the game was a notable aspect of his performance, as evidenced by his zero assists.
Miles Byrd had a respectable outing, leading the team in rebounding with 9 boards and contributing 4 assists. His 15 points were a testament to his ability to score in a variety of ways, but his 4-14 shooting from the field and 3-8 mark from three-point range indicate that he struggled to find a rhythm at times. Byrd's 1 block was a highlight of his defensive play, but it was not enough to compensate for the team's overall defensive struggles.
The remaining players from both teams largely adhered to their season averages, with no notable deviations from their established performances.
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Final
While pre-game predictions often provide a useful framework for understanding the matchup, they are not infallible. In this case, the model's forecast of a narrow San Diego State victory proved to be wide of the mark, as Colorado State ultimately prevailed by 9 points. The discrepancy between prediction and reality highlights the complexities of college basketball, where a single game can be influenced by a multitude of factors.
A closer examination of the in-game statistics reveals two key factors that contributed to Colorado State's decisive victory. Firstly, the Rams' ability to shoot at an elevated clip, both from the field (60.2% eFG%) and beyond the arc (41.9% 3PT%), proved to be a major boon for their offense. Conversely, San Diego State struggled to find its rhythm on offense, shooting at a season-low 45.0% eFG%. Furthermore, Colorado State's enhanced rebounding rate (31.0% OREB) allowed them to secure a significant advantage on the glass, which in turn enabled them to control the tempo of the game. These two factors, combined with San Diego State's inability to match the Rams' scoring pace, ultimately proved to be the difference-makers in this contest.
Colorado State's victory against San Diego State will likely bolster its NCAA Tournament resume, as the win against a similarly-ranked opponent (Quad 2) will help offset the Rams' uneven performance in Quad 1 games, now 1-4. With a NET ranking of #93, Colorado State may find itself seeded around the 12-line in the tournament bracket, potentially setting up a favorable matchup against a lower-seeded team in the first round. Conversely, San Diego State's loss will be a setback, as its Quad 2 win total now sits at just 5, a stark contrast to its Quad 1 performance, where it has yet to secure a victory. As a result, the Aztecs may face a difficult seeding decision, potentially falling to a 5 or 6 seed, and will need to close out the season strong to improve their tournament chances. The Aztecs' NET ranking of #44 now appears vulnerable to erosion, raising concerns about their viability as a tournament contender.