The San Jose State Spartans are on a 5-game losing streak, with their last loss being a 89-58 blowout at the hands of the Boise State Broncos, and they're looking to turn their fortunes around when they face off against the same Boise State team, who are averaging 84.6 points per game over their last 5 outings, with 3 of those games being decided by 4 points or less, including a 91-90 win over New Mexico and a 91-87 win over Nevada, showcasing their ability to perform under pressure, with a 3-2 record in that stretch. Boise State has been on a tear, outscoring their opponents by an average of 3.2 points per game over their last 5, and they're looking to continue that trend against a San José State team that's been struggling to find its footing, averaging just 69.8 points per game over their last 5, while allowing 84 points per game, resulting in a -14.2 point differential.
The Broncos have been led by their high-powered offense, which has been clicking on all cylinders, with an average margin of 3.2 points per game over their last 5, and they're facing a San José State team that's been struggling to keep up with their opponents' scoring pace, having lost all 5 of their last games, including an 89-58 loss to Boise State, where they were outscored by 31 points, and a 79-94 loss to Grand Canyon, where they were outscored by 15 points. The Spartans have been struggling to find any consistency on offense, scoring 75 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games, including a 57-65 loss to Colorado State, where they were held to just 37.5% shooting from the field, and a 58-89 loss to Boise State, where they were outrebounded by 15 boards.
Key Matchups
The matchup between these two teams will feature a number of intriguing individual battles, including the one between Boise State's leading scorer, who's averaging 18.5 points per game over his last 5, and San José State's top defender, who's been struggling to contain opponents' top scorers, allowing an average of 22.1 points per game to the opposing team's leading scorer over the last 5 games. Another key matchup will be between San José State's top scorer, who's averaging 15.6 points per game over his last 5, and Boise State's lockdown defender, who's been holding opponents to just 38.5% shooting from the field over his last 5 games. The Broncos have also been getting significant contributions from their bench, with an average of 24.8 points per game coming from their reserves over the last 5 games, including a 32-point outing against New Mexico, and a 25-point outing against Nevada.
The trends suggest that Boise State should have the upper hand in this matchup, given their recent form and San José State's struggles, with the Broncos averaging 84.6 points per game over their last 5, while the Spartans have been averaging just 69.8 points per game over the same stretch. The Broncos have also been dominant on the glass, outrebounding their opponents by an average of 6.4 boards per game over their last 5, including a 15-board advantage over San José State in their previous meeting.
CHD Scout Prediction
San José State
67
Boise State
83
The CHD Scout prediction has Boise State winning by 16.7 points, with a 91.1% win probability, and it's easy to see why, given the Broncos' recent form and the Spartans' struggles, with Boise State outscoring their opponents by an average of 3.2 points per game over their last 5, while San José State has been outscored by an average of 14.2 points per game over the same stretch. The Broncos have also been taking care of business at home, with a 10-3 record at ExtraMile Arena this season, including a 89-58 win over San José State, where they shot 52.5% from the field and held the Spartans to just 37.5% shooting.
A win for Boise State would be a significant boost to their NCAA Tournament resume, as it would give them a quality win over a conference opponent, and would also help to solidify their position on the bubble, with the Broncos currently sitting at 60 in the NET rankings. On the other hand, a loss for San José State would be a significant blow to their already slim tournament hopes, as it would drop them to 6-20 on the season, and would also give them a 1-14 record in conference play, making it increasingly unlikely that they'll be able to make a push for the postseason.
Tournament Stakes
The tournament stakes are high for both teams, with Boise State looking to build on their recent momentum and solidify their position on the bubble, and San José State looking to pull off a major upset and give their tournament hopes a significant boost. A win for the Spartans would be a huge resume-builder, as it would give them a quality win over a top-60 team in the NET rankings, and would also help to offset some of their earlier losses, including a 79-94 loss to Grand Canyon, and a 75-82 loss to UNLV. On the other hand, a loss for Boise State would be a significant setback, as it would drop them to 15-11 on the season, and would also give them a 7-8 record in conference play, making it increasingly likely that they'll be on the outside looking in come tournament time. The Broncos have been led by their experienced core, with an average of 10.5 years of college experience per starter, and they're facing a San José State team that's been struggling to find consistency, with an average of just 2.5 years of college experience per starter.