The Seattle University Redhawks travel to Malibu, California, to face the Pepperdine University Waves at Firestone Fieldhouse on February 25. While Seattle is favored to win, the Waves have shown flashes of competitiveness in recent games, making this matchup more intriguing than it initially appears. Seattle, with a 6-10 record in the West Coast Conference, is still seeking to solidify its position in the conference standings, and a win against Pepperdine would be a crucial step in that process.
As the Redhawks look to assert their dominance, they will need to be mindful of Pepperdine's ability to capitalize on mistakes and create scoring opportunities in transition. For Seattle to come out on top, they will need to maintain their defensive discipline and limit the Waves' scoring bursts. Meanwhile, an upset by Pepperdine would require a near-flawless performance, with the Waves needing to dictate the tempo and exploit any vulnerabilities in Seattle's offense. Despite being heavy underdogs, the Waves have nothing to lose and can play loose, which might just give them the edge they need to pull off a surprise victory.
With a 17-12 overall record and 6-10 mark in the West Coast Conference, Seattle U enters this matchup having won two of its last five games, including a 71-59 victory over Portland on February 21. Averaging 14.6 points per game, the team's leading scorer is supported by his 3.4 rebounds and 2.6 assists per contest, while his teammates have also made significant contributions, including one player who is averaging 12.3 points and 4.1 rebounds per game, with 1.6 assists per contest. His 12.3 points per game have been complemented by another player's 12.2 points and 5.4 rebounds per game, with 2.1 assists per contest, making them a formidable duo.
The team's recent form has been marked by close contests, including a 70-72 loss to Saint Mary's on February 18 and a 53-54 loss at Portland on February 7, with one player's 45% three-point shooting not enough to secure a win in the latter game. In the paint, the team has relied on the contributions of , who is averaging 7.5 points and 4.9 rebounds per game, and , who is averaging 5.7 points and 2.6 rebounds per game. With , , and leading the charge, Seattle U will look to build on its recent win and secure a crucial road victory at Pepperdine, where the team's balanced attack will be tested against a tough opponent.
With a record of 8-21, including a 3-13 mark in the West Coast Conference, Pepperdine enters this matchup looking to build momentum. Averaging 15.8 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, while his 3.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game demonstrate his all-around ability. The team's recent form has been inconsistent, as evidenced by their last five games, which include a 95-87 win at Portland and a 90-89 victory over Loyola Marymount, but also losses to Oregon State, Saint Mary's, and Pacific.
His 45% three-point shooting has been a bright spot for , who is averaging 10.8 points per game. ' versatility has been on display, with the guard contributing 13.5 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game, making him a key factor in the team's offense. 's 11.5 points and 4.6 rebounds per game have also been crucial, while 's 3.6 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game have provided a spark off the bench, as the team looks to turn its season around against Seattle U.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Seattle U's Will Heimbrodt and Pepperdine's Javon Cooley will be a pivotal factor in determining the outcome of this game. Heimbrodt's ability to score and rebound will be tested by Cooley's defensive prowess, and conversely, Cooley's scoring and rebounding capabilities will be challenged by Heimbrodt's defensive skills. Given their similar statistical profiles, this head-to-head battle has the potential to swing the game in either direction.
Heimbrodt's 5.4 rebounds per game will be crucial in limiting Cooley's opportunities on the glass, while Cooley's 4.6 rebounds per game will put pressure on Heimbrodt to secure defensive boards. Additionally, Heimbrodt's 12.2 points per game will be matched against Cooley's 11.5 points per game, making this individual matchup a microcosm of the team's overall performance. The team that emerges victorious in this battle will likely gain a significant advantage in the game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Seattle U
77
Pepperdine
67
Based on the model's prediction of Seattle U winning 77-67 with an 80.5% win probability, I agree that Seattle U will emerge victorious. The primary reason for this pick is the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Seattle U sitting at #125 and Pepperdine at #273, indicating a substantial gap in overall team strength and performance throughout the season. This difference in quality suggests that Seattle U has a strong foundation to build upon, which should ultimately lead to their success in this matchup.
Tournament Stakes
As the season winds down, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams' conference tournament positioning, with Seattle U seeking to solidify its standing in the West Coast Conference and Pepperdine looking to play spoiler. A win for Seattle U would help the Redhawks maintain their current pace, potentially setting them up for a more favorable draw in the conference tournament, while a loss could jeopardize their chances of earning a top-four seed. Conversely, a Pepperdine victory would be a much-needed boost to the Waves' morale and could potentially spark a late-season surge, although their overall trajectory this season suggests a longer-term rebuilding effort is underway. With neither team harboring illusions of an at-large bid, the focus is squarely on conference tournament preparation, and this game serves as a crucial data point in that pursuit, making it clear that Seattle U's postseason hopes are on far more stable ground than Pepperdine's, and a loss would only serve to further underscore the significant gap between these two programs.