Siena defeats Marist 63-67

The Siena Saints pulled off a stunning 67-63 upset over the Marist Red Foxes at McCann Arena, defying their 193 NET ranking and handing Marist, ranked 157, a devastating loss. This outcome is particularly jarring given that Marist was predicted to win by 13.3 points, a margin that seemed reasonable considering their recent form, which included a 3-2 record over their last 5 games, with an average score of 68.6-65.6. However, Siena's 73.2 points per game average over their last 5 games, coupled with their ability to outscore opponents by 1.6 points per game during that stretch, should have been a warning sign. The Saints' 36-point first half, which included 7 points from Antonio Chandler, set the tone for the game and ultimately was the difference. Marist's Justin Menard tried to keep his team in it, scoring 17 points, but it wasn't enough to overcome Siena's strong start.

As the game wore on, it became clear that Siena's ability to control the tempo and limit Marist's scoring opportunities was going to be a major factor. The Red Foxes were held to just 29 points in the first half, a far cry from their average of 68.6 points per game over their last 5. Siena, on the other hand, was able to maintain their pace, scoring 31 points in the second half to secure the win. The Saints' Justice Shoats was instrumental in this effort, scoring 17 points and dishing out 6 assists, including a crucial 3-pointer with just over 2 minutes remaining to put Siena up by 5. This shot, which came with 2:05 left on the clock, was a dagger to Marist's hopes of a comeback, and the Red Foxes were unable to recover. With this win, Siena improves to 18-9 on the season, while Marist falls to 16-10.

The stat line doesn't do justice to the impact that Siena's Antonio Chandler had on the game. His 19 points and 5 rebounds were crucial, but it was his ability to hit big shots and make plays when it mattered most that truly made the difference. Meanwhile, Marist's Jason Schofield, who scored 13 points and grabbed 7 rebounds, was a bright spot for the Red Foxes, but his efforts were ultimately overshadowed by Siena's balanced attack. The Saints had three players score in double figures, including Gavin Doty, who chipped in with 15 points and 7 rebounds. This balanced attack, which saw 4 players score at least 8 points, was a key factor in Siena's win, as it allowed them to withstand Marist's defensive pressure and maintain their lead.

The prediction models had Marist winning this game by a comfortable margin, but it's clear that they missed something. The Red Foxes' recent trend of outscoring opponents by 3.0 points per game over their last 5, coupled with their strong defensive performances, which included holding opponents to just 65.6 points per game, should have been a warning sign. However, Siena's ability to exploit Marist's weaknesses, particularly their struggles to defend the 3-point line, where they allowed opponents to shoot 35.6% over their last 5 games, was a key factor in their win. The Saints shot 42.9% from beyond the arc, including 5-10 in the first half, which helped them build a lead that they would never relinquish.

The discrepancy between the predicted score and the actual outcome can be attributed to Siena's ability to control the tempo and limit Marist's scoring opportunities. The Saints' strong defensive performance, which included holding Marist to just 29 points in the first half, was a major factor in their win. Additionally, Siena's balanced attack, which saw 4 players score at least 8 points, allowed them to withstand Marist's defensive pressure and maintain their lead. The Red Foxes, on the other hand, were unable to find their rhythm on offense, shooting just 40.4% from the field and committing 12 turnovers. This lack of cohesion on offense, coupled with their struggles to defend the 3-point line, ultimately cost them the game.

As the season enters its final stretch, this win could have real consequences for Siena's tournament hopes. The Saints' NET ranking of 193 is still a long way from the bubble, but this win, which came against a Quad 4 opponent, is a step in the right direction. With 5 games remaining on their schedule, Siena must continue to win and hope that other teams ahead of them in the standings stumble. Marist, on the other hand, must regroup and refocus after this disappointing loss. The Red Foxes' Quad 4 loss will not help their tournament resume, and they must be careful not to let this loss snowball into a larger slump. Over their last 5 games, Marist has averaged 68.6 points per game, but they have also allowed 65.6 points per game, which could be a concern as they head into the final stretch of the season.

This win is a significant boost to Siena's tournament resume, as it gives them a much-needed Quad 3 win. The Saints' current NET ranking of 193 is still a long way from the bubble, but this win, coupled with their recent trend of outscoring opponents by 1.6 points per game over their last 5, suggests that they may be peaking at the right time. Marist, on the other hand, must be careful not to let this loss hurt their tournament chances. The Red Foxes' Quad 4 loss will not help their resume, and they must win their remaining games to stay in contention. With 5 games remaining on their schedule, Marist must refocus and regroup if they hope to make a push for the tournament. The Red Foxes' recent trend of outscoring opponents by 3.0 points per game over their last 5 suggests that they have the ability to compete with anyone, but they must be more consistent if they hope to make a deep run in the tournament.

The final minutes of the game were a microcosm of the entire contest, with Siena's defense stifling Marist's offense and the Saints' balanced attack proving to be too much for the Red Foxes to handle. With just over 1 minute remaining, Siena's Justice Shoats hit a crucial free throw to put the Saints up by 4, and Marist was unable to recover. The Red Foxes' Justin Menard scored 17 points, but it wasn't enough to overcome Siena's strong team performance. The Saints' win is a significant upset, and it will be interesting to see how both teams respond in their next games. Siena want to build on this momentum, while Marist must regroup and refocus if they hope to make a push for the tournament. With 5 games remaining on their schedule, both teams must be at their best if they hope to achieve their goals.

In the end, Siena's 67-63 win over Marist is a reflection of the Saints' ability to compete with anyone in the conference. The Saints' strong defensive performance, coupled with their balanced attack, was too much for the Red Foxes to handle. As the season enters its final stretch, this win could have real consequences for Siena's tournament hopes, and it will be interesting to see how both teams respond in their next games. With a NET ranking of 193, Siena still has a long way to go, but this win is a step in the right direction. The Saints must continue to win and hope that other teams ahead of them in the standings stumble if they hope to make a push for the tournament. For now, they can celebrate a big win over a tough opponent, and look to build on this momentum as they head into the final stretch of the season.