As the calendar flips to late January, the margin for error grows thinner for bubble teams angling for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. With both James Madison and South Alabama sitting squarely on the periphery of the conversation, their upcoming matchup at the Atlantic Union Bank Center takes on added significance. The Dukes, currently ranked 239th in the NET rankings, are desperate for quality wins to bolster their resume, having gone 0-3 against Quad 1 opponents and 2-5 in Quad 3 matchups. Meanwhile, the Jaguars, sporting a more respectable 200 NET ranking, are looking to build momentum after a recent stretch of inconsistent play.
The CHD Scout prediction gives James Madison a narrow 0.4-point edge, with a 51.5% win probability, suggesting a nail-biter is in store. The Dukes want to capitalize on their home-court advantage, where they've compiled a 6-2 record against Quad 4 opponents. South Alabama, on the other hand, has been solid in Quad 4 matchups, boasting an 8-2 mark, but their 0-3 record against Quad 2 foes raises concerns about their ability to perform against stronger competition.
CHD Scout Prediction
South Alabama
74
James Madison
74
In terms of recent form, both teams have experienced ups and downs, with James Madison going L-L-W and South Alabama recording a L-W-W mark over their last three outings. Unfortunately, there's no notable player momentum to speak of, so it's likely that the team that can establish a consistent rhythm and dictate the pace will emerge victorious.
With the tournament selection committee sure to scrutinize every aspect of these teams' profiles, a win in this Quad 3 (for the visitor) or Quad 4 (for the host) contest could prove invaluable. The Vegas line has James Madison as 3.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 138.5 points. Given the Dukes' home-court advantage and the Jaguars' struggles against stronger opponents, I'm predicting a 75-72 James Madison victory. The Dukes' ability to feed off their energetic home crowd and exploit South Alabama's weaknesses in Quad 2 matchups should give them the slight edge they need to come out on top.