The South Dakota State Jackrabbits and St. Thomas Tommies are set to face off at the Denny Sanford Premier Center on March 5, a neutral site that will host a crucial matchup between two teams vying for a chance to advance in the Summit League tournament. With the St. Thomas Tommies heavily favored, the Jackrabbits will look to pull off a significant upset, one that would require a near-perfect performance and capitalization on any vulnerabilities the Tommies may exhibit. For St. Thomas, a win would be expected, but they still need to prove their ability to perform under pressure and against a team that, despite being the underdog, has shown glimpses of strong play in recent games.
As the Jackrabbits, or SDSU, take on the Tommies, they will rely on their ability to create turnovers and disrupt their opponent's offense, a strategy that has worked for them in the past. Meanwhile, the Tommies, or St. Thomas, will look to exploit SDSU's defensive weaknesses and use their own offensive prowess to secure a win. With both teams' only path to the NCAA Tournament being a conference tournament auto-bid, the stakes are high, and the margin for error is low. The Tommies' recent form, marked by a 3-2 record in their last five games, including a decisive win over Omaha, will be put to the test against an SDSU team that has shown it can compete, having gone 3-2 in their last five games, despite a recent loss to South Dakota.
Averaging 14.8 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his ability to create shots being a key factor in South Dakota State's offense. The team's record stands at 14-17, with a 7-9 mark in the SUMM conference, and their recent form has been mixed, as evidenced by their last five games, which include a 70-75 loss at South Dakota and a 73-59 win at Kansas City. His 3.5 rebounds per game and 2.1 assists per game have also been crucial in supporting the team's overall performance. With contributing 14.1 points per game and 6.4 rebounds per game, the team has had a reliable inside presence.
The team's backcourt has been bolstered by , who has been averaging 12.2 points per game, 4.4 rebounds per game, and 2.7 assists per game, making him a versatile threat on the court. 's 10.7 points per game, 5.1 rebounds per game, and 3.3 assists per game have also been important, as he has been able to contribute in multiple facets of the game. Meanwhile, has provided a spark off the bench, averaging 8.8 points per game and 4.4 rebounds per game, and his presence will be important as the team looks to bounce back from their recent loss and take on St. Thomas.
Averaging 18.5 points per game, the team's leading scorers, Nolan Minessale and Nick Janowski, have been crucial to St. Thomas (FL)'s success this season. His 45% three-point shooting has been a key factor in Nolan Minessale's scoring output, while Nick Janowski's ability to score and rebound, with 5.1 rebounds per game, has made him a versatile threat. With a 23-8 overall record, St. Thomas (FL) has shown its ability to compete against various levels of opponents, although its 0-1 record in Quad 1 games and 0-3 record in Quad 2 games suggest some challenges against top-tier teams.
In recent games, St. Thomas (FL) has demonstrated its ability to score and defend effectively, with wins over Omaha and North Dakota State. Carter Bjerke's 9.9 points per game and Isaiah Johnson-Arigu's 9.5 points per game have provided additional scoring support, while Ryan Dufault's 1.9 assists per game have helped facilitate the team's offense. His 7.0 points per game have also been a valuable contribution from Ryan Dufault, and with Nolan Minessale and Nick Janowski leading the way, St. Thomas (FL) will look to continue its strong form against South Dakota State.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Jaden Jackson of South Dakota State and Nolan Minessale of St. Thomas (FL) will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Jackson, a versatile scorer and playmaker, will need to contain Minessale, who averages 18.5 points per game. Minessale's ability to score and create for his teammates will be a significant challenge for Jackson, who will have to balance his own scoring responsibilities with the task of defending one of the nation's top scorers.
If Jackson can limit Minessale's production, it could disrupt St. Thomas's offense and create opportunities for South Dakota State to gain an advantage. Conversely, if Minessale is able to exploit Jackson defensively, it could lead to a long night for the Jackrabbits. The head-to-head battle between these two players will be a key factor in deciding the game, as it has the potential to impact the tempo and flow of the contest.
CHD Scout Prediction
South Dakota State
71
St. Thomas (FL)
82
The model predicts a decisive 82-71 victory for St. Thomas (FL), with an 83.1% win probability, and I concur with this assessment. Given the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with St. Thomas (FL) sitting at #106 and South Dakota State at #205, it is reasonable to expect the former to emerge victorious. Specifically, the substantial difference in NET rankings suggests that St. Thomas (FL) possesses a level of overall strength and competitiveness that South Dakota State may struggle to match, leading me to believe that St. Thomas (FL) will ultimately prevail in this neutral-site contest.
Tournament Stakes
This matchup holds significant implications for both teams' postseason positioning within the SUMM conference, as a win for either side could substantially impact their conference tournament seeding. For South Dakota State, a victory would be a crucial upset, potentially catapulting them up the conference standings and improving their chances of securing a favorable draw in the tournament. Conversely, a loss would likely cement their position near the bottom of the conference, making their path to the auto-bid even more treacherous. For St. Thomas (FL), a win would solidify their position near the top of the conference, bolstering their chances of earning a high seed and a more manageable tournament bracket. Given that this game is a Quad 4 matchup for St. Thomas (FL) and a Quad 2 matchup for South Dakota State, the Bobcats' superiority in the NET rankings suggests they should prevail, but a South Dakota State win would be a program-defining upset that would unequivocally prove they can compete with the conference's elite, and that's a prospect that should terrify every other SUMM coach.