The University of South Florida Bulls, riding a five-game win streak, will look to continue their momentum on the road against Rice University Owls at Tudor Fieldhouse on February 25. This matchup, while seemingly lopsided on paper, holds significance for South Florida as they strive to solidify their position on the NCAA Tournament bubble. A win would be a crucial step in bolstering their resume, while a loss could jeopardize their postseason aspirations. Meanwhile, Rice, with their only path to the tournament being the AAC conference tournament auto-bid, will aim to pull off a significant upset to boost their own morale and momentum heading into the conference tournament.
As the favored South Florida team takes to the court, they will face a Rice squad that, despite their struggles, has shown flashes of competitiveness. The Owls will need to capitalize on any vulnerabilities in South Florida's defense and find a way to contain their opponent's offense, which has been clicking in recent games. For an upset to occur, Rice will require a near-perfect performance, exploiting any weaknesses in South Florida's game plan and catching a few breaks along the way. South Florida, on the other hand, still needs to prove that they can maintain their level of play away from home and against less formidable opponents, a test that Rice will look to administer on their home court.
Averaging 18.3 points per game between them, the trio of , , and has been crucial to South Florida's success this season. The team's leading scorer, with his 16.0 points per game, is Wes Enis, whose ability to create scoring opportunities has been a key factor in the team's recent form. His 2.2 assists per game have also been valuable in setting up teammates, including , whose 5.1 assists per game lead the team. With a record of 19-8, including 11-3 in the American Athletic Conference, South Florida has shown its ability to compete against strong opponents, as evidenced by its 2-2 record in Quad 1 games.
In their last five games, South Florida has been on a tear, winning all five contests, including victories over Memphis, Florida Atlantic, and Wichita State. Izaiyah Nelson's 9.9 rebounds per game have been a major factor in the team's success, providing a strong presence in the paint and helping to control the boards. His 15.7 points per game have also been important, and when combined with the scoring of Joseph Pinion and , who averages 11.0 points per game, the team has been able to put up significant points. With CJ Brown's 11.8 points per game and 4.0 rebounds per game, the team has a well-rounded attack that will look to continue its winning ways against Rice.
Averaging 16.4 points per game, is the team's leading scorer, and his presence will be crucial in Rice's matchup against South Florida. With his 5.4 rebounds per game, Trae Broadnax also contributes significantly to the team's rebounding efforts. The team's recent form has been inconsistent, with losses to Tulane and East Carolina in their last five games, but a win against Florida Atlantic on February 11 suggests they are capable of competing against strong opponents. His 3.2 assists per game make Trae Broadnax a key playmaker for Rice.
The team's offense is also bolstered by , whose 16.0 points per game make him a reliable scoring threat, and , who contributes 11.4 points per game. His 45% three-point shooting is not available in the data, but 's 6.9 points per game and 's 5.7 points per game provide additional scoring depth for Rice. With a record of 11-16 and a NET ranking of 250, Rice faces an uphill battle against South Florida, but the team's ability to win close games, as evidenced by their 86-83 victory over North Texas on February 4, suggests they may be able to push their opponents to the limit.
Key Matchups
The matchup between South Florida's Izaiyah Nelson and Rice's Trae Broadnax will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Nelson, a dominant force in the paint, will look to exploit his rebounding advantage over Broadnax, who averages 5.4 rebounds per game. If Nelson can control the glass and limit Broadnax's opportunities, it could severely hinder Rice's ability to generate second-chance points and limit their overall scoring output.
The battle between Nelson and Broadnax will also be crucial in terms of pace and tempo. Broadnax's ability to score and facilitate for Rice will be tested by Nelson's defensive presence, and if Broadnax can find ways to navigate around Nelson, it could allow Rice to dictate the pace of the game. Conversely, if Nelson can shut down Broadnax, South Florida may be able to impose their will and control the tempo, giving them a significant advantage.
CHD Scout Prediction
South Florida
86
Rice
73
The model's prediction of a 13-point South Florida victory, with an 85.7% win probability, aligns with my own assessment of the game. I agree with the model, as South Florida's significant advantage in terms of overall team strength, as reflected in their NET rankings, is a crucial factor that will likely sway the outcome in their favor. Specifically, the substantial disparity in NET rankings, with South Florida at #52 and Rice at #250, suggests that South Florida's depth and consistency will ultimately prove too much for Rice to overcome, leading to a decisive South Florida win.
Tournament Stakes
As the regular season winds down, this matchup holds differing levels of significance for each team's postseason aspirations. For South Florida, a win would be a Quad 4 addition to their resume, unlikely to significantly bolster their at-large case, but a loss would be a detrimental Quad 4 defeat, potentially harming their already tenuous NCAA Tournament hopes. Conversely, Rice's postseason fate is all but tied to their conference tournament performance, rendering this game more about building momentum than resume enhancement. With South Florida's Quad 1 and 2 records under scrutiny, a victory would at least avoid inflicting further damage on their profile, whereas Rice's only concern is gaining steam for a potential auto-bid run. Ultimately, South Florida's postseason trajectory hinges on avoiding missteps like this one, and a loss to a NET #250 team would be a crippling blow to their fragile at-large chances.