The South Florida Bulls, with a 16-8 overall record and 8-3 mark in the American Athletic Conference, are on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and a win over the Wichita State Shockers would significantly enhance their chances, considering the Shockers' 15-9 record and 7-4 conference standing. The Bulls have a 2-3 record against Quad 1 opponents and are 5-4 against Quad 3 teams, highlighting the importance of this Quad 2 matchup. With 77.5 points per game, the Bulls' offense will face a stiff test against the Shockers, who allow 71.2 points per contest.
South Florida Bulls' 45.1% Field Goal Percentage Faces Stiff Test Against Wichita State Shockers' 48.5% Field Goal Percentage
The game is scheduled for February 11, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET, at Charles Koch Arena, and will be broadcast on ESPN+.
The South Florida Bulls have been led by their balanced offense, with four players averaging over 10 points per game, including 13.4 points from their leading scorer. The Bulls have a NET ranking of 63 and a quad record of 2-3 in Quad 1 games, 2-1 in Quad 2, 5-4 in Quad 3, and a perfect 6-0 in Quad 4. Over their last three games, the Bulls have gone 2-1, with their most recent loss coming by a margin of 5 points. The Bulls are shooting 45.1% from the field and 34.5% from beyond the arc, numbers that will be tested by the Shockers' defense.
Key Matchups
The Wichita State Shockers, with a 15-9 overall record and 7-4 conference mark, are seeking quality wins to build their tournament resume. The Shockers have a NET ranking of 86 and a quad record of 1-3 in Quad 1 games, 2-1 in Quad 2, 2-4 in Quad 3, and 9-1 in Quad 4. Over their last three games, the Shockers have gone 2-1, with their most recent loss coming by a margin of 7 points. The Shockers are averaging 74.2 points per game, while allowing 71.2 points per contest, and are led by their 48.5% field goal percentage.
The South Florida Bulls' backcourt will face a significant challenge against the Wichita State Shockers' defense, which has held opponents to 32.1% shooting from beyond the arc. The Bulls' 34.5% three-point shooting will be tested, and their ability to adapt matters. The Shockers, on the other hand, want to exploit the Bulls' defense, which has allowed 45.5% shooting from the field. The pace of the game will also be an interesting aspect, as the Bulls average 69.5 possessions per game, while the Shockers average 67.2. The Shockers' 1.03 points per possession will be pitted against the Bulls' 1.01 points per possession, making for an intriguing matchup.
CHD Scout Prediction
South Florida
77
Wichita State
81
For the South Florida Bulls, their leading scorer is averaging 13.4 points per game, while another key contributor is shooting 41.2% from beyond the arc. The Bulls will also rely on their post player, who is averaging 7.3 rebounds per game. For the Wichita State Shockers, their top scorer is averaging 15.1 points per game, and their point guard is dishing out 4.5 assists per contest. The Shockers' sharpshooter is also a player to watch, with a 38.5% three-point shooting percentage.
Tournament Stakes
The CHD Scout prediction favors the Wichita State Shockers by 4.2 points, with a 64.2% win probability. This prediction is based on the Shockers' strong home court advantage, where they have gone 10-2 this season, and their ability to contain the Bulls' offense. The over/under is set at 160.5, and the Shockers are 1.5-point favorites, indicating a closely contested matchup.
A win for the South Florida Bulls would be a significant boost to their NCAA Tournament chances, considering the Shockers' NET ranking of 86 and the game being classified as a Quad 2 matchup. The Bulls' quad record would improve to 3-3 in Quad 1 and 2 games, making a strong case for their tournament resume. For the Wichita State Shockers, a win would be a quality addition to their resume, moving them to 2-3 in Quad 1 games and 3-1 in Quad 2, significantly enhancing their tournament hopes.