As the calendar flips to February, the margin for error is shrinking for teams with NCAA Tournament aspirations. For those hovering around the bubble, every game takes on added significance - and not just the marquee matchups. A loss to a lower-tier opponent can be a resume-killer, while a dominant win can help bolster a team's case for inclusion. This Thursday, Stephen F. Austin State finds itself in the latter situation, hosting Southeastern Louisiana in a game that, on paper, looks like a mismatch.
The Lumberjacks, boasting a 16-3 record and a NET ranking of 84, are firmly in control of their own destiny in the Southland Conference. With a 10-1 mark in league play, they're well-positioned to make a deep run in the conference tournament. However, their quad record tells a more nuanced story - 0-1 in Quad 1 games and 0-1 in Quad 2 contests. A win over Southeastern Louisiana, though not a quad-buster, would still be a valuable addition to their resume. According to the CHD Scout prediction, Stephen F. Austin is favored to win by 13.7 points, with an 88.6% chance of emerging victorious.
For Southeastern Louisiana, the task is clear: pull off a monumental upset to inject some life into their tournament hopes. Currently sitting at 5-14 overall and 3-8 in conference play, the Lions need a quality win to turn their season around. Unfortunately, their recent form - a win sandwiched between two losses - doesn't inspire confidence. With a NET ranking of 278 and a quad record that's more liability than asset, the Lions face an uphill battle to climb out of the cellar.
CHD Scout Prediction
SE Louisiana
61
Stephen F. Austin
76
In terms of player momentum, neither team has a standout performer on a hot streak, which means the focus will be on the teams' overall execution. Given the CHD Scout prediction and the significant disparity in NET rankings, it's hard to envision an upset. I predict Stephen F. Austin will take care of business, winning by a comfortable margin - likely in the range of 15 points. The Lumberjacks' superior record, combined with their strong recent form (three straight wins) and the comfort of playing at home, make them the clear favorite to come out on top. Expect a decisive victory for the hosts, as they continue to build their case for a tournament bid.