The Southern California Trojans, currently ranked 48th in the NET rankings, are looking to bolster their tournament resume with a Quad 1 win on the road against the Ohio State Buckeyes, who boast a 39th ranking in the NET. With a 1-4 record in Quad 1 games, a win for Southern California would significantly enhance their chances of securing a higher seed in the tournament. Meanwhile, Ohio State, with a 0-7 record in Quad 1 games, is seeking to turn their fortunes around and prove themselves as a formidable opponent. The Buckeyes' 7-6 conference record and 15-8 overall record demonstrate their ability to compete, but they need a signature win to solidify their position in the tournament field.
Southern California Trojans Have a 63.2% Free Throw Shooting Percentage on the Road
The game is scheduled to take place on February 11, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET at Value City Arena, with the broadcast available on ESPN. The over/under is set at 151.5 points, indicating a high-scoring affair.
The Southern California Trojans have been impressive this season, with an 18-6 overall record and a 7-6 conference record. Their recent form has been stellar, with a 3-game win streak, including a 75-68 victory over their previous opponent. The Trojans' NET ranking of 48 and quad record of 1-4 Q1, 8-1 Q2, 3-1 Q3, and 5-0 Q4 demonstrate their strength in the tournament field. With 8 wins in Quad 2 games, they have shown their ability to perform against strong competition.
Key Matchups
The Ohio State Buckeyes have had a solid season, with a 15-8 overall record and a 7-6 conference record. However, their recent form has been inconsistent, with a record of 1-2 in their last 3 games. The Buckeyes' NET ranking of 39 and quad record of 0-7 Q1, 4-1 Q2, 5-0 Q3, and 6-0 Q4 indicate their struggles against top-tier opponents. Despite this, they have shown their ability to dominate weaker teams, with a perfect record in Quad 3 and Quad 4 games.
The matchup between the Southern California Trojans and the Ohio State Buckeyes will be a clash of styles, with the Trojans' fast-paced offense, averaging 74.5 points per game, facing off against the Buckeyes' stingy defense, which allows only 68.2 points per game. The Trojans' 45.6% field goal percentage will be tested by the Buckeyes' 42.1% defensive field goal percentage. The pace of the game matters, as the Trojans average 72.1 possessions per game, while the Buckeyes average 69.5 possessions per game. The team that can impose their pace and style on the game will likely emerge victorious.
CHD Scout Prediction
USC
76
Ohio State
79
For the Southern California Trojans, Boogie Ellis has been on a tear, averaging 18.5 points per game over his last 5 games, including a 25-point performance in their previous win. Drew Peterson has also been consistent, with 12.8 points and 6.5 rebounds per game over the same period. For the Ohio State Buckeyes, Brice Sensabaugh has been the standout player, averaging 17.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game over his last 5 games. Zed Key has also been impressive, with 12.2 points and 7.8 rebounds per game over the same period.
Tournament Stakes
The CHD Scout prediction favors the Ohio State Buckeyes, with a predicted score of 79-76 and a 62.3% win probability. This margin of 3.6 points indicates a closely contested game, with the Buckeyes' home-court advantage potentially being the deciding factor. The prediction suggests that the Buckeyes' defense will be able to contain the Trojans' offense, while their own offense will be able to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
A win for the Southern California Trojans would be a significant boost to their tournament resume, as it would be their second Quad 1 win of the season. On the other hand, a loss would drop them to 1-5 in Quad 1 games, potentially hurting their seeding in the tournament. For the Ohio State Buckeyes, a win would be their first Quad 1 victory of the season, significantly enhancing their tournament chances. A loss, however, would drop them to 0-8 in Quad 1 games, making their path to the tournament more challenging.