The University of Southern California and the University of Washington are set to face off in a crucial matchup at the United Center, a neutral site, on March 11. With both teams sitting at 7-13 in the Big Ten conference, this game holds significant implications for their conference tournament seeding. As neither USC nor Washington is in contention for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid, their focus shifts to positioning themselves for a potential run in the conference tournament, where the winner will claim the automatic bid. The margin between these evenly matched teams is slim, and the outcome of this game will have a direct impact on their postseason prospects.
The recent form of both teams adds an extra layer of intrigue to this matchup. USC is looking to snap a five-game losing streak, while Washington aims to bounce back from a loss to Oregon in its previous outing. The model prediction slightly favors Washington, but the actual outcome will depend on which team can capitalize on the small margins that often separate teams at this level. With the conference tournament looming, the stakes are high, and both USC and Washington will be looking to make a statement in this neutral-site showdown.
Averaging 20.3 points per game, Rodney Rice has been the team's leading scorer, with his 6.0 assists per game also making him a key facilitator. The team's recent form has been concerning, with losses in their last five games, including a 68-89 defeat to UCLA and a 72-91 loss at Washington. His 3.3 rebounds per game are complemented by 's 6.8 rebounds per game, as Jacob Cofie has been a steady presence on the glass. With contributing 18.6 points per game, the team has had multiple scoring threats, but their overall record of 18-13 and 7-13 in conference play reflects their struggles.
The team's reliance on Rodney Rice and Chad Baker-Mazara is evident, as their scoring averages are significantly higher than those of and , who average 14.9 and 14.8 points per game, respectively. His 45% three-point shooting has been a notable aspect of Chad Baker-Mazara's game, and Ezra Ausar's 6.6 rebounds per game have made him a key contributor on the glass. As the team prepares to face Washington again, they will need to find a way to reverse their recent fortunes, with Alijah Arenas's 1.9 assists per game potentially playing a key role in their efforts to regain their footing.
Averaging 18.6 points per game, is the team's leading scorer, and his 11.6 rebounds per game make him a dominant force on the court. With a record of 15-16, Washington is looking to bounce back from a loss to Oregon in their last game, where they fell 79-85. His 45% three-point shooting is a significant asset, and Hannes Steinbach's all-around skills will be crucial in the matchup against USC. The team's recent form has been inconsistent, with a win against USC and a loss to Wisconsin in their last two home games.
The team's backcourt is bolstered by the presence of , who is averaging 15.3 points per game and 4.2 assists per game, making him a key playmaker. Desmond Claude's 13.3 points per game and 's 12.9 points per game provide additional scoring punch, while 's 2.2 assists per game help to facilitate the team's offense. With a 7-13 record in conference play, Washington will need to rely on the scoring abilities of Desmond Claude, Wesley Yates III, and Quimari Peterson to stay competitive against USC.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Hannes Steinbach and Ezra Ausar will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Steinbach, Washington's dominant big man, averages 11.6 rebounds per game, while Ausar, USC's primary post presence, averages 6.6 rebounds. The team that wins the battle on the glass will likely gain a significant advantage, and this individual matchup will be crucial in deciding which team controls the boards. If Ausar can contain Steinbach and limit his rebounding opportunities, USC may be able to neutralize one of Washington's key strengths.
Steinbach's ability to score and rebound will test Ausar's defensive skills, and the outcome of this matchup will have a significant impact on the game's tempo and momentum. If Steinbach can exploit Ausar in the paint and dominate the glass, Washington will be well-positioned to control the pace of the game and create scoring opportunities. Conversely, if Ausar can hold his own against Steinbach, USC may be able to push the tempo and create transition scoring chances, potentially swinging the game in their favor.
CHD Scout Prediction
USC
73
Washington
80
The model predicts a Washington victory, 80-73, with a 74.7% win probability, and I concur with this assessment. While USC's record may suggest a more even matchup, I believe Washington's superior NET ranking, at 61 compared to USC's 77, is a significant indicator of their relative strength. This disparity in NET ranking suggests that Washington has performed better against a similar schedule, which leads me to believe they have the edge in this neutral-site game, and I anticipate they will emerge victorious.
Tournament Stakes
As the regular season winds down, both USC and Washington are focused on positioning themselves for a deep run in the conference tournament, their only viable path to postseason play. A win for either team would not only bolster their conference standing but also enhance their seeding in the upcoming tournament, potentially setting them up for a more favorable draw. With both teams boasting similar, albeit modest, records against Quad 2 opponents, this matchup takes on added significance as a litmus test for their conference tournament prospects. While neither team has been particularly impressive against stronger competition, a victory in this Quad 2 contest would nonetheless provide a crucial boost to their momentum and confidence heading into the postseason, and ultimately, the team that emerges victorious will be one step closer to extending their season - and for one of these programs, that's all that's left to play for.