In a stunning upset, Southern Illinois pulled off a 2-point victory over Northern Iowa, 59-57, at the McLeod Center. The Salukis, ranked 128th in the NET rankings, defeated the Panthers, who were seeded higher at 82nd. The margin of victory was a mere 2 points, underscoring the competitiveness of the contest.
The game's final scoreline, with Southern Illinois leading by a single point, belies the closeness of the contest. Northern Iowa held a 7-point lead at halftime, but Southern Illinois managed to outscore the Panthers 26-27 in the second half. The Salukis' ability to close the gap and secure the win was a testament to their resilience and determination.
Quel'Ron House led Southern Illinois with a game-high 21 points, converting 10 of his 17 field goal attempts. His efficiency from the free throw line was perfect, sinking both of his attempts. House also chipped in with four rebounds and a team-high five assists, displaying his ability to control the pace of the game. His shooting percentages were respectable, with the exception of a lone missed three-point attempt.
Drew Steffe provided a spark off the bench, scoring 14 points on 5-of-7 shooting from the field, including 4-of-5 from three-point range. His outside shooting was a significant contributor to Southern Illinois' victory, as he scored all of his points from beyond the arc or at the free throw line. Steffe's three assists also helped facilitate the team's offense, but his rebounding total was limited to two.
Trey Campbell's 16 points, though a respectable total, ultimately fell short of propelling Northern Iowa to victory. His 8-16 shooting from the field and 0-4 showing from three-point range limited the team's scoring opportunities. Campbell's supporting cast, however, struggled to compensate for his relatively quiet night.
Will Hornseth's 14 points and 1 block were a bright spot for Northern Iowa, but his performance was not enough to overcome the team's overall shooting woes. Hornseth's 5-8 mark from the field and 4-5 showing from the free throw line were encouraging, but his supporting players failed to provide a significant boost. Meanwhile, Tristan Smith's 8 points were largely a result of his 3-4 shooting from the field, but his inability to contribute in other facets of the game left a void in the Northern Iowa offense.
Three players deviated significantly from their season averages, with distinct implications on their team's performance. Rolyns Aligbe's defensive presence was a welcome addition for Southern Illinois, as his 3 blocks nearly tripled his season average, underscoring his growing impact on the glass and in the paint. Conversely, Jaheem Webber's unexpected surge in scoring and rebounding was a bright spot for the Salukis, with his 4-point, 6-rebound outing exceeding his modest season averages by a considerable margin. Meanwhile, Leon Bond III's struggles from the field and beyond the arc were stark, as his 2-for-8 shooting and 0-for-3 three-point attempts fell far short of his season averages, underscoring the Panthers' reliance on other scorers in the absence of their usual production.
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Final
While the pre-game model predicted a Northern Iowa victory by 7.5 points, the Salukis outperformed expectations, securing a 2-point win. The model's misjudgment can be attributed to several key factors that contributed to the outcome.
The decisive factor in this contest was Southern Illinois' superior shooting efficiency, which allowed them to maintain a consistent scoring pace throughout the game. Meanwhile, Northern Iowa struggled to find their rhythm from beyond the arc, converting at a lower rate than their season average. Additionally, Southern Illinois' dominant rebounding performance, led by their 40.9% OREB rate, allowed them to secure crucial second-chance opportunities, ultimately tilting the game in their favor.
The outcome of this game has significant implications for both teams' NCAA Tournament resumes. For Southern Illinois, this Quad 2 win is its second of the season, joining a 1-1 record in Quad 1 games. This performance should bolster its NCAA Tournament chances, with a NET ranking of 128, although it still trails in the win-loss column compared to its peers. A 3-seed or higher in the MVC Tournament is now within reach, but the Salukis will need to maintain their performance in the final stretch of the season. With this win, the Salukis are now firmly in the picture for a top-three seed in the MVC Tournament, and a strong showing could potentially secure a 12-seed or higher in the NCAA Tournament. The real test will be how they navigate the conference's top teams.
For Northern Iowa, this Quad 3 loss is its second in as many games, and it now stands at 0-2 in Quad 1 games. The Panthers' NET ranking of 82 has taken a hit, and their NCAA Tournament chances have become more precarious. A top-four seed in the MVC Tournament is no longer a guarantee, and they will need to regroup and win out in the conference to salvage their chances for a 13-seed or higher in the NCAA Tournament. Their bid to secure a top-four seed in the MVC Tournament has hit a snag, and they will need to win out in the final stretch to remain in the conversation.