As Wake Forest fights to stay afloat on the NCAA Tournament bubble, a win over Southern Methodist would be a significant boost to their resume. The Demon Deacons, currently ranked 65th in the NET rankings, are still seeking their first Quad 1 victory, and a triumph over the 33rd-ranked Mustangs would certainly fit the bill. SMU, on the other hand, is solidly in the tournament field, boasting a 3-5 record against Quad 1 opponents and a flawless 6-0 mark against Quad 4 foes.
The CHD Scout prediction favors SMU by 2.5 points, with Wake Forest holding a 40.7% win probability. This forecast is likely influenced by the Demon Deacons' recent struggles, including a loss in two of their last three games. Meanwhile, SMU has also experienced some inconsistency, dropping two of their last three contests. With neither team showcasing strong momentum, this matchup becomes a true toss-up.
CHD Scout Prediction
SMU
82
Wake Forest
79
The Quad 2 designation for this game from Wake Forest's perspective adds extra importance, as a win would not only enhance their tournament chances but also improve their Quad 2 record. For SMU, a road victory would be a valuable Quad 1 addition to their portfolio. Given the slim margin in the CHD Scout prediction, this game is poised to be a closely contested affair.
Tournament Stakes
I predict SMU will edge Wake Forest 82-79, leveraging their stronger overall profile and slight edge in the prediction metrics. The Mustangs' ability to perform against top-tier opponents will ultimately be the difference-maker here, allowing them to escape Winston-Salem with a hard-fought victory.