The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles will face off against the Arkansas State Red Wolves at First National Bank Arena on February 24, a matchup that may seem lopsided given the teams' respective records and NET rankings. However, with both teams vying for position in the Sun Belt Conference standings, this game holds significant importance for their conference tournament prospects. Southern Miss, also known as the Eagles, has shown flashes of resilience in recent games, while Arkansas State, or the Wolves, has demonstrated a high-powered offense that can be difficult to contain.
As the Wolves look to solidify their standing in the conference, they will need to prove they can maintain their momentum against a gritty Eagles team that has shown an ability to pull off close victories. For the Eagles to pull off an upset, they will need to exploit any vulnerabilities in the Wolves' defense and find a way to slow down their potent offense. Given the Wolves' favorable model prediction, an Eagles win would require a strong team effort and a bit of fortune. Despite the odds, this matchup has the potential to be a closely contested and intriguing game, with both teams fighting for a crucial conference win.
Averaging 19.2 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his 6.0 rebounds per game also making him a key contributor on the glass. The team's recent form has been marked by inconsistency, with wins over Old Dominion and Troy in their last five games, but also losses to South Alabama and Marshall. His 2.0 assists per game have also been important in facilitating the team's offense, which has been bolstered by ' 15.3 points per game and 6.3 rebounds per game. With 's 8.4 rebounds per game leading the team, Southern Miss has shown an ability to compete on the boards.
With a record of 15-14 and a NET ranking of #237, Southern Miss is looking to build momentum heading into the final stretch of the season. 's 2.7 assists per game have been crucial in helping to distribute the ball to Tylik Weeks and Isaac Taveras, who have been the team's most consistent scorers. His 8.9 points per game, combined with 's 7.9 points per game, have given Southern Miss a solid supporting cast, and Djahi Binet's 11.4 points per game have made him a reliable third option. As the team prepares to face Arkansas State, they will be looking to continue their strong rebounding, led by Djahi Binet and Isaac Taveras, and to find a way to win on the road, where they have struggled at times this season.
Averaging 11.4 points per game, has been a crucial component of Arkansas State's offense, with his 4.3 assists per game also making him a key playmaker. The team's recent form has been encouraging, with wins in four of their last five games, including a 102-94 victory at Louisiana-Monroe and a 79-62 win at Louisiana. His 3.4 rebounds per game have also been a welcome addition to the team's efforts on the boards. With 's 13.6 points per game leading the way, the team has shown an ability to score consistently, and 's 10.9 points per game have provided a further boost to their offense.
His 45% three-point shooting has been a notable aspect of 's game, and with 10.1 points per game, he has been a reliable contributor to the team's scoring efforts. 's 9.1 points per game have also been important, and his 2.6 rebounds per game have helped to support the team's defensive efforts. As Arkansas State prepares to face Southern Miss, they will be looking to build on their recent momentum, which has seen them win eight of their last eleven games, including a 103-70 victory over Louisiana-Monroe and a 91-54 win over Bowling Green. With Chandler Jackson's playmaking and Christian Harmon's scoring, the team will be aiming to extend their winning run.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Southern Miss's Djahi Binet and Arkansas State's Christian Harmon will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Binet, a dominant rebounder, will look to exploit his significant advantage on the glass, where he averages nearly 5 more rebounds per game than Harmon. If Binet can control the boards, it will limit Arkansas State's opportunities for second-chance points and put pressure on their offense to perform efficiently.
Harmon, on the other hand, will need to use his quickness and scoring ability to counter Binet's size and strength in the paint. If Harmon can draw Binet away from the basket and create space to operate, he may be able to neutralize Binet's rebounding advantage and create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates. The outcome of this individual battle will have a significant impact on the team's overall performance and ultimately decide the game's outcome.
CHD Scout Prediction
Southern Miss
73
Arkansas State
81
Based on the model's prediction, which gives Arkansas State an 81-73 victory with a 77.4% win probability, I agree that Arkansas State will emerge victorious. The primary reason for this prediction is the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Arkansas State holding a considerable advantage at #143 compared to Southern Miss's #237 ranking, indicating a substantial difference in the quality of their respective schedules and performances.
Tournament Stakes
As the season winds down, both Southern Miss and Arkansas State are focused on positioning themselves for a strong run in the Sun Belt Conference tournament, their only viable path to postseason play. A win for Arkansas State would bolster their conference standing, potentially securing a higher seed in the tournament and a more favorable matchup. For Southern Miss, a victory on the road would be a significant boost to their chances, allowing them to climb the conference ladder and gain momentum heading into the tournament. With neither team boasting a strong record against top-tier opponents, their Quad 1 and Quad 2 records are less relevant than their performance within the conference, making this matchup a crucial test of their mettle against a fellow Sun Belt contender, and ultimately, Arkansas State's superiority in this game will only serve to further underscore the significant gap between the middle tier of the Sun Belt and its lower rungs.