The Arkansas State Red Wolves secured a closely contested 89-84 victory over the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at First National Bank Arena. The five-point margin of victory suggests a game that was decided by a possession or two, with Arkansas State ultimately emerging on top. The Red Wolves held a nine-point advantage at halftime, leading 53-44, but the Golden Eagles narrowed the gap in the second half, outscoring Arkansas State 40-36.
The difference in the outcome can be attributed to Arkansas State's ability to maintain its lead despite being outscored in the second half. The Red Wolves, ranked 143 in the NET rankings, were able to hold off the Golden Eagles, who are ranked 237. The narrow margin and the back-and-forth nature of the second half indicate that this was a competitive matchup, with both teams having opportunities to sway the outcome.
A 29-point effort was not to be found, but Jalen Hampton's 17 points and 13 rebounds were crucial in Arkansas State's victory. His 7-13 shooting from the field and perfect 1-1 mark from three-point range contributed to the team's overall performance. With the game on the line, Hampton's ability to secure 13 rebounds helped Arkansas State maintain possession and limit Southern Miss's scoring opportunities.
Erupting for 15 points, albeit mostly from the free-throw line, Joey Chammaa's performance was notable for its resilience, as he went 15-18 from the charity stripe. The freshman standout Christian Harmon chipped in with 14 points, including 2-6 shooting from beyond the arc, and added 2 rebounds and 2 assists to his stat line. His 6-7 mark from the free-throw line was also a key factor in the outcome, as Arkansas State's free-throw shooting helped to seal the win.
Finishing with 21 points, 3 rebounds, and 9 assists, Tylik Weeks' effort was a notable bright spot for Southern Miss, but ultimately fell short of being enough to secure a win. His 8-17 field goal shooting and 4-6 free throw shooting were respectable, but the team's overall performance was not sufficient to overcome Arkansas State. The team's leading scorer, Weeks, also struggled from beyond the arc, making only 1 of his 3 three-point attempts.
Despite the loss, Isaac Taveras and Djahi Binet put up strong numbers, with Taveras contributing 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists, and Binet adding 16 points and 6 rebounds. His 8-17 field goal shooting and 4-10 free throw shooting made Taveras a consistent threat, while Binet's 8-11 field goal shooting was a highlight, albeit one that was not enough to propel Southern Miss to victory. Binet's defensive presence was also felt, as he recorded 1 block, but the team's overall defense was unable to contain Arkansas State's offense.
A notable deviation from season averages came from the Southern Miss supporting cast, with Dylan Brumfield's rebounding and playmaking numbers standing out, as his 8 rebounds and 6 assists significantly exceeded his averages of 3.8 and 2.9, respectively, while his scoring output of 7 points was only slightly below his season average of 8.8 points, highlighting Brumfield's adaptability and contributions beyond his typical scoring role.
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Final
The pre-game prediction of an Arkansas State victory by 9.2 points ultimately proved correct, albeit by a narrower margin than anticipated. The actual result, an 89-84 win for the home team, suggests that Southern Miss put up a more formidable fight than expected. This discrepancy between the predicted and actual margins of victory implies that the visiting team was more competitive than forecasted, and that Arkansas State's win was harder-earned than anticipated.
The game's outcome was largely decided by the teams' performance on the glass and their shooting efficiency. Arkansas State's significant increase in offensive rebounding rate, to 44.7% from their season average of 35.9%, allowed them to maintain possession and create additional scoring opportunities. Conversely, Southern Miss's higher-than-expected effective field goal percentage, at 54.5%, kept them in the game and made the contest more competitive than predicted. These factors, particularly Arkansas State's ability to control the boards, ultimately tipped the balance in their favor, enabling them to secure a win despite not shooting as efficiently as they have on average this season.
The outcome of this contest has significant implications for both teams' postseason aspirations, as they vie for positioning in the Sun Belt Conference tournament. Arkansas State's victory bolsters their conference standing, potentially setting them up for a more favorable draw in the tournament, while Southern Miss's loss drops them further down the pecking order, making their path to the automatic bid more treacherous. Given their respective NET rankings, neither team has a realistic chance of earning an at-large bid, making the conference tournament their sole focus. As the season enters its final stretch, Arkansas State's trajectory appears more promising, having now improved to 19-11, whereas Southern Miss's .500 record raises concerns about their program's momentum. In a conference where tournament seeding can greatly impact a team's chances of securing the auto-bid, Arkansas State's win over Southern Miss serves as a stark reminder that, in the Sun Belt, even Quad 3 and Quad 4 games can have a profound impact on a team's ultimate goal: the conference tournament title, and with it, a chance to dance – a reality that now seems more elusive than ever for Southern Miss.