In a stunning turn of events, the University of Denver Pioneers edged the University of St. Thomas Tommies 82-80, defying expectations in a matchup between two teams from vastly different NET rankings. The Pioneers' victory marked a significant upset, with the Tommies entering the game as a higher-ranked team, ranked 108th in the NET, compared to the Pioneers' 227th spot. The narrow margin of two points only adds to the shock of the outcome.
The game's final scores reflect the back-and-forth nature of the contest, with the Pioneers taking a slight lead in the second half, outscoring the Tommies 45-41. The Tommies had managed to keep pace in the first half, even taking a two-point lead, but ultimately fell short in a closely contested game.
Julius Rollins led the Denver offense with 26 points, shooting an impressive 75% from the field and 62.5% from three-point range. His efficiency from the free throw line, where he went 3-for-3, further highlighted his ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. Rollins also contributed on the glass, grabbing six rebounds, and demonstrated his defensive prowess with one block. His well-rounded performance was a key factor in Denver's narrow 82-80 victory.
Carson Johnson also had a significant impact on the game, scoring 25 points on 61.5% shooting from the field and 42.9% from three-point range. His ability to get to the free throw line, where he converted 6-of-7 attempts, helped him rack up points and maintain a high level of scoring efficiency. Johnson's 3 assists were also notable, as he helped facilitate Denver's offense and set up scoring opportunities for his teammates.
While St. Thomas (FL) ultimately fell short, its top performers showed flashes of brilliance. Nick Janowski led the team in scoring, but his 19 points came on just 9-19 shooting from the field and 1-6 from beyond the arc, numbers that, while respectable, left him a few percentage points shy of his usual mark. Despite this, his ability to draw fouls and get to the line was a welcome sight, but he struggled to convert from the free throw line.
Ryan Dufault and Carter Bjerke provided crucial support, but neither could quite find the rhythm they needed to propel the team to victory. Dufault's 13 points came on a solid 6-9 shooting performance from the field, but he struggled to create for himself and his teammates. Bjerke's 10 points were fueled by his three three-pointers, but his 3-5 shooting from the field was not enough to keep up with the opponent's relentless attack.
Jeremiah Burke's performance was a stark departure from his season averages, as he struggled to find his footing on both ends of the court. His 14.8 points per game average was replaced by a paltry six points, a significant drop-off that was exacerbated by his dismal 22.2% shooting from the field and 33.3% from three-point range. While his season average suggests he is a force on the glass, Burke managed only two rebounds, a nearly 4-rebound per game decline. However, he did manage to tie his season average for blocks per game, swatting one shot, a notable bright spot in an otherwise disappointing outing.
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Final
While pre-game predictions suggested a convincing victory for St. Thomas (FL), the actual outcome was a nail-biting two-point win for Denver. The disparity between the predicted margin and the final result was a stark reminder that even the most advanced models can fall short of perfection. In this case, the model's misstep may have been attributed to a failure to accurately assess the strengths of the Denver team, particularly in the areas that ultimately decided the game.
A closer examination of the team statistics reveals that Denver's improved efficiency from beyond the arc and on the glass played a significant role in their upset victory. The Pioneers' 37.9% three-point shooting, a 4.6% increase from their season average, was a key factor in their success, as they capitalized on St. Thomas' vulnerability on the perimeter. Additionally, Denver's rebounding woes were largely mitigated by their ability to grab a respectable 20.7% of available rebounds, a 23.4% increase from their season average, which allowed them to control the paint and limit the Tommies' second-chance opportunities. These adjustments on both ends of the court ultimately proved to be the difference-makers in Denver's two-point win.
This outcome has significant implications for both teams' NCAA Tournament resumes. For Denver, the win marks its third Quad 3 victory, but the team's NET ranking and overall record remain mediocre. However, with the loss of St. Thomas (FL), a team with a higher NET ranking and a more impressive overall record, Denver's chances of sneaking into the tournament as a lower-seeded team have marginally improved. Denver is likely to remain on the bubble, but this win gives it a small cushion. Denver's seed, if it makes the tournament, is unlikely to exceed a 12-seed. Conversely, St. Thomas (FL) now faces an uphill battle to secure an at-large bid, and this loss will likely drop its NET ranking and further diminish its NCAA Tournament chances. The Tommies' seeding, if they make the tournament, will likely be lower than their NET ranking suggests. This loss could be a fatal blow to St. Thomas (FL)'s postseason aspirations.