The Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks secured a stunning 98-94 upset victory over the St. Thomas Bobcats, with Grant Stubblefield leading the charge with 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists. This monumental win marked a significant 4-point margin, defying the pre-game prediction of a 8.9-point St. Thomas victory. Nebraska-Omaha's record now stands at 13-14, while St. Thomas falls to 20-7. The Mavericks' 98 points were divided into 47 in the first period and 51 in the second, outpacing St. Thomas's 42 and 52 points in each respective period.
Nebraska-Omaha's 98 Points Marked a Season High
The game was a back-and-forth affair, with Nebraska-Omaha taking a 47-42 lead into halftime. St. Thomas fought back in the second period, scoring 52 points, but Omaha's 51 points were enough to secure the win. The Mavericks' Valentino Simon contributed 21 points and 10 rebounds, while Ja'Sean Glover added 22 points and 5 rebounds. St. Thomas's Isaiah Johnson-Arigu led his team with 19 points and 5 rebounds, and Nolan Minessale chipped in with 17 points, 5 rebounds, and 9 assists. The Mavericks' ability to outscore St. Thomas by 5 points in the first period proved crucial, as they were able to hold off the Bobcats' second-half surge. Nebraska-Omaha's 51 second-period points were the most they have scored in a single period this season, and their 98 total points marked a season high.
Grant Stubblefield and Isaiah Johnson-Arigu were the top performers for their respective teams, with Stubblefield's 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists leading the way for Nebraska-Omaha. Johnson-Arigu's 19 points and 5 rebounds paced St. Thomas, while Nolan Minessale's 17 points, 5 rebounds, and 9 assists were also notable. For Nebraska-Omaha, Ja'Sean Glover and Valentino Simon also had impressive outings, with 22 points and 21 points, respectively. St. Thomas's Ben Oosterbaan contributed 13 points and 6 rebounds, but it was not enough to overcome the Mavericks' balanced attack. The two teams combined for 192 points, with Nebraska-Omaha shooting 51.4% from the field and St. Thomas shooting 49.3%.
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Nebraska-Omaha outrebounded St. Thomas 38-34, with Valentino Simon's 10 rebounds leading the way. The Mavericks also committed 12 turnovers, compared to St. Thomas's 15. Nebraska-Omaha shot 51.4% from the field, including 42.9% from 3-point range, while St. Thomas shot 49.3% from the field and 40% from 3-point range. The Mavericks' 98 points marked a season high, and their 51 second-period points were the most they have scored in a single period this season. St. Thomas's 94 points were the most they have allowed in a game this season, and their 42 first-period points were the fewest they have scored in a period this season.
The CHD Scout prediction model was incorrect in its prediction of a St. Thomas victory, forecasting a 73-81 win for the Bobcats. Instead, Nebraska-Omaha emerged victorious, winning 98-94. The model underestimated the Mavericks' offense, which scored 25 more points than predicted. The model also overestimated St. Thomas's defense, which allowed 17 more points than predicted. The actual margin of 4 points was significantly different from the predicted margin of 8.9 points, highlighting the unpredictability of this matchup. The model's incorrect prediction dropped its accuracy rating to 75%, and it must be recalibrated to account for Nebraska-Omaha's upset victory.
This upset victory was a significant Quadrant 3 win for Nebraska-Omaha, improving their resume and potentially boosting their NET ranking from 259. For St. Thomas, the loss was a Quadrant 4 defeat, which could negatively impact their NET ranking of 111. The Bobcats' 20-7 record is still impressive, but this loss may hurt their chances of securing a high seed in the tournament. Nebraska-Omaha's win marked a significant turning point in their season, and they want to build on this momentum in their remaining games. The Mavericks' 13-14 record is still under .500, but their upset victory over St. Thomas gives them hope for a strong finish to the season.
Nebraska-Omaha's next game is against the Denver Pioneers on February 15, while St. Thomas will face the North Alabama Lions on February 17. Both teams want to bounce back from this intense matchup, with Nebraska-Omaha seeking to build on their momentum and St. Thomas aiming to regain their footing. The Mavericks must replicate their strong offense and defense from this game, while the Bobcats must shore up their defense and find a way to slow down their opponents' high-scoring attacks.