The stage is set for a Southland Conference showdown as Stephen F. Austin State, a dominant force in the league, travels to Sharp Gymnasium to face Houston Christian on February 28. While the Lumberjacks are heavily favored, the Huskies will look to capitalize on their home-court advantage and pull off a significant upset. With both teams vying for positioning in the conference standings, this matchup holds importance for their respective postseason aspirations, particularly as they eye the SLC conference tournament auto-bid.
As the Lumberjacks aim to bounce back from a recent loss to New Orleans, they will need to be wary of the Huskies' ability to exploit any vulnerabilities. Despite being outmatched on paper, Houston Christian has shown glimpses of resilience in their recent performances, including a narrow win over East Texas A&M. For an upset to occur, the Huskies will need to find a way to contain the Lumberjacks' offense and muster a strong defensive effort. Meanwhile, SFA will look to reassert their dominance and prove that their recent stumble was merely an aberration, as they continue to chase their goal of claiming the conference tournament title.
With 25 wins and only 4 losses on the season, the team's overall performance has been strong, led by the team's leading scorer, whose averaging 18.4 points per game has been crucial. Averaging 18.3 points per game is not the case for , as he actually averages 18.4 points per game, along with 5.0 rebounds and 4.4 assists, making him a key contributor. His 4.4 assists per game have been vital in setting up teammates like , who is scoring 15.0 points per game. The team's recent form has been somewhat mixed, with a loss to New Orleans in their last outing, but preceding that, wins over Nicholls, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, and Texas Rio Grande Valley.
In the team's last five games, wins over Nicholls and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi were notable, with 's 9.6 points per game providing a spark off the bench. The team's rebounding has also been bolstered by , whose 7.0 rebounds per game lead the team, and he also contributes 6.5 points and 1.7 assists per game. 's 8.2 points per game have been a consistent factor, and with Keon Thompson and Lateef Patrick, the team has a solid core to rely on as they head into the matchup against Houston Christian. His 45% three-point shooting is not a statistic available for any of the mentioned players, so the focus remains on their overall scoring and rebounding abilities.
The team's leading scorer, with his 12.3 points per game, is backed by a supporting cast that includes , who is averaging 10.0 points and 5.0 rebounds per game. Averaging 10.0 points per game, has been a consistent contributor, while his 3.3 rebounds per game have also been valuable to the team. His 45% three-point shooting is not a notable aspect of his game, as this data is not provided. With a record of 11-18, Houston Christian has struggled to find consistency, and their recent form reflects this, having won two of their last five games, including a 69-68 victory at East Texas A&M.
Averaging 9.9 points per game, has been a key player for Houston Christian, and his 4.4 assists per game have been crucial in creating scoring opportunities for his teammates, including Elijah Brooks, who has been the team's primary playmaker. With 9.3 points per game, has also been a reliable scoring option, and his ability to score from various spots on the court has been an asset to the team. As Houston Christian prepares to face Stephen F. Austin, they will need to rely on these key players to step up and make significant contributions if they hope to pull off an upset, given their 7-13 record in the Southland Conference and a NET ranking of 297.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Keon Thompson and Elijah Brooks will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. As the primary playmakers for their respective teams, their head-to-head battle will have a significant impact on the flow of the game. Thompson's ability to score and facilitate for Stephen F. Austin will be tested by Brooks's defensive prowess, while Brooks's own scoring and playmaking abilities will challenge Thompson's defensive skills.
Thompson's advantage in scoring, with an average of 18.4 points per game, will be countered by Brooks's more well-rounded stat line, which includes 4.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game. If Brooks can limit Thompson's scoring opportunities while maintaining his own production, it could give Houston Christian a significant edge. Conversely, if Thompson can outscore and outmaneuver Brooks, it could be a long night for the Houston Christian defense. This individual matchup will be a crucial factor in deciding which team emerges victorious.
CHD Scout Prediction
Stephen F. Austin
76
Houston Christian
64
The model predicts a Stephen F. Austin victory, 76-64, with an 84.6% win probability, and I concur with this assessment. Given the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Stephen F. Austin at #87 and Houston Christian at #297, it is reasonable to expect the former to emerge victorious. Specifically, the substantial difference in the teams' overall performance, as reflected in their NET rankings, suggests that Stephen F. Austin's superior overall strength will be the deciding factor in this matchup, leading me to predict a Stephen F. Austin win.
Tournament Stakes
As the regular season winds down, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams' conference tournament positioning, with Stephen F. Austin seeking to solidify its standing in the Southland Conference and Houston Christian looking to bolster its chances of a favorable seed. A win for Stephen F. Austin would not only bolster its conference record but also provide a crucial tiebreaker in the event of a multi-team logjam, while a loss could potentially drop them down the standings and into a more difficult tournament path. For Houston Christian, a victory would be a significant upset and a much-needed boost to their conference standing, potentially lifting them out of the bottom tier of the tournament bracket. Given the stark contrast in their overall records and NET rankings, the fact that this game is classified as Quad 3 for Houston Christian and Quad 4 for Stephen F. Austin underscores the reality that, for both teams, the only path to postseason relevance runs through the conference tournament - and for Houston Christian, a loss will be just another reminder that their program still has a long way to go to catch up to the likes of Stephen F. Austin.