The Stony Brook Seawolves will face off against the Hofstra Pride on February 28 at the David S. Mack Sports and Exhibition Complex, with both teams vying for position in the Colonial Athletic Association standings. As the regular season draws to a close, this matchup takes on added significance, with both teams eyeing a strong finish to bolster their chances in the upcoming conference tournament. While Hofstra is favored to win, Stony Brook has shown flashes of competitiveness in recent games, making this a potentially intriguing contest.
Despite being the underdog, the Seawolves have demonstrated an ability to compete with top teams in the CAA, and will look to exploit any vulnerabilities in the Pride's defense. For Hofstra, a win would help solidify their position in the conference, but they still need to prove they can consistently perform at a high level against quality opponents. With both teams relying on a conference tournament auto-bid as their only path to the NCAA Tournament, the intensity and stakes are elevated, setting the stage for a hard-fought battle between the Seawolves and Pride.
Averaging 19.7 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, while his 5.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game have made him a versatile threat on the court. The team's recent form has been marked by inconsistency, with a 79-72 win over Hampton on February 21 and a 72-69 win over Drexel on February 16, but also a 57-69 loss at Towson on February 12. His 45% three-point shooting has been a key factor in Stony Brook's offense, which has also relied on 's 10.1 points per game and 's 9.6 points per game.
With a record of 17-11 and a NET ranking of 211, Stony Brook is looking to build momentum heading into the final stretch of the season. ' 6.2 rebounds per game have been crucial in controlling the boards, while Collin O'Connor's 8.3 points per game have provided a spark off the bench. His 2.3 rebounds per game may not be as impressive as Richard Goods' numbers, but Collin O'Connor's scoring ability has been a valuable asset to the team. As Stony Brook prepares to face Hofstra, the team will need to draw on the strengths of Erik Pratt, Rob Brown III, and Andrej Shoshkikj to come out on top.
Averaging 21.0 points per game, the team's leading scorer is fueled by , whose 4.6 assists per game also make him a key playmaker. His 21.0 points per game are complemented by , with his 15.7 points per game, as the team has relied on these two to drive its offense. The team's recent form has been solid, with wins in four of its last five games, including an 82-68 victory at Northeastern and a 79-43 win over Hampton.
The presence of , with his 8.9 points per game, and , who averages 8.8 points and 4.7 rebounds per game, has given the team a balanced attack. His 45% three-point shooting is a notable aspect of German Plotnikov's game, while Biggie Patterson's rebounding ability has been a key factor in the team's success. With contributing 6.7 points and 3.5 rebounds per game, the team has a deep roster that can compete with Stony Brook, and their 19-10 record, including a 10-6 mark in the CAA, reflects their ability to win consistently.
Key Matchups
The outcome of this game will largely hinge on the matchup between Stony Brook's Erik Pratt and Hofstra's Cruz Davis. As the top scorers for their respective teams, their head-to-head battle will be crucial in determining which team emerges victorious. Pratt's ability to score, rebound, and distribute the ball will be tested by Davis's own impressive scoring and playmaking abilities. If Pratt can outduel Davis, Stony Brook may be able to gain a significant advantage.
The contrast in styles between Pratt and Davis will also be intriguing to watch. While both players are capable scorers, Davis has a slight edge in terms of playmaking, with more assists per game. Meanwhile, Pratt has a rebounding advantage, which could be crucial in limiting Hofstra's second-chance opportunities. If Pratt can use his rebounding prowess to neutralize Davis's playmaking and keep him in check, Stony Brook may be able to gain the upper hand in this pivotal matchup.
CHD Scout Prediction
Stony Brook
65
Hofstra
78
Based on the model's prediction, which gives Hofstra an 85.6% win probability with a projected 78-65 score, I agree that Hofstra will emerge victorious. The significant disparity in NET rankings between the two teams, with Hofstra sitting at 94 and Stony Brook at 211, is a key factor in my prediction. This substantial difference in ranking suggests that Hofstra has performed at a considerably higher level against its schedule, which leads me to believe that they will be able to capitalize on this advantage and secure a win against Stony Brook.
Tournament Stakes
As the conference season enters its final stretch, both Stony Brook and Hofstra are jockeying for position in the CAA standings, with the ultimate goal of securing a favorable seed in the conference tournament. A win for Hofstra would help solidify their position near the top of the standings, while a loss could create a logjam in the middle of the pack. For Stony Brook, a road victory would be a significant boost to their conference tournament prospects, potentially vaulting them into contention for a top-four seed. With both teams relying on a conference tournament championship to extend their season, the importance of every game, including this one, cannot be overstated - and a Hofstra loss would be a stark reminder that even the most promising programs in the CAA are only one misstep away from a precipitous fall down the standings.