The Tennessee at Martin Skyhawks, boasting a 20-9 record and a NET ranking of 187, were expected to dominate the Little Rock Trojans, who sat at 11-17 with a NET ranking of 312, but the latter had other plans, pulling off a stunning 67-65 upset at the Jack Stephens Center. This victory marked a significant departure from Little Rock's recent trend, where they had averaged 67.2 points per game over their last 5 outings, but were outscored by 1.0 point per game, resulting in a 1-4 record during that stretch. In contrast, UT Martin had been averaging 67.8 points per game over their last 5 games, outscoring their opponents by 3.4 points per game, and held a 2-3 record in that span. The Skyhawks' 22-point performance from Andrija Bukumirovic was not enough to overcome the Trojans' balanced attack, which saw Cameron Wallace score 21 points and grab 10 rebounds, while Kachi Nzeh added 18 points and 7 rebounds.
The first half saw UT Martin take control, scoring 32 points to Little Rock's 28, with Bukumirovic accounting for 12 of those points. However, the Trojans adjusted their strategy in the second half, outscoring the Skyhawks 39-33, with Wallace and Nzeh combining for 24 points in the period. This turnaround was a reflection of Little Rock's resilience, as they had previously struggled to close out games, losing 4 of their last 5 outings. The Skyhawks, on the other hand, had been inconsistent, with losses to Southeast Missouri State, Lindenwood, and Morehead State in their last 5 games. Despite these trends, UT Martin was still predicted to win by 5.9 points, according to CHD Scout, but the Trojans' determination and strong team play ultimately led to the upset.
Little Rock's Cameron Wallace Scores 21 Points in Upset Win
Beyond the impressive stat lines, it was the clutch performances from Little Rock's players that made the difference. Wallace hit several crucial shots in the second half, including a jumper with 2:30 remaining to put the Trojans up by 4 points. Nzeh, meanwhile, was a force on the glass, grabbing 5 rebounds in the final 10 minutes of the game. On the other hand, UT Martin's AJ Hopkins, who had been averaging 11 points per game, was held to just 2 points in the second half, and the Skyhawks' offense stagnated as a result. Bukumirovic's 22 points were not enough to compensate for the lack of production from his teammates, and the Skyhawks' usually reliable defense was breached by the Trojans' balanced attack.
The CHD Scout prediction had UT Martin winning by 5.9 points, but the model failed to account for Little Rock's recent improvement, as they had been averaging 67.2 points per game over their last 5 outings. The Trojans' ability to adapt and overcome their opponents' strengths was a key factor in the upset, as they exploited UT Martin's weaknesses and capitalized on their mistakes.
CHD Scout Report Card
INCORRECTPredicted
Final
The discrepancy between the predicted and actual scores can be attributed to the Trojans' strong team defense, which held the Skyhawks to 33 points in the second half, and their ability to limit UT Martin's scoring opportunities. The Skyhawks' offense, which had been averaging 67.8 points per game over their last 5 outings, was stifled by the Trojans' defensive strategy, and they were unable to overcome the deficit.
As the season enters its final stretch, this win could have real consequences for Little Rock's tournament hopes, albeit a long shot. With a NET ranking of 312, the Trojans are still a ways off from being considered a viable candidate, but this victory over a top-200 team could be a crucial Quad 4 win. UT Martin, on the other hand, must regroup and refocus, as this loss could hurt their chances of securing a better seed in the conference tournament. The Skyhawks had been 2-3 in their last 5 games, and this loss drops them to 20-10, making their upcoming games even more critical.
The impact of this game on the tournament picture is significant, as Little Rock's win could potentially play themselves onto the bubble, albeit a very distant one, with a NET ranking of 312. However, with 11 wins and a strong performance against a top-200 team, the Trojans may start to receive some attention from tournament prognosticators. UT Martin, on the other hand, must bounce back from this loss and win their remaining games to secure a better seed in the conference tournament. The Skyhawks' NET ranking of 187 is still respectable, but this loss could drop them a few spots, making their path to the tournament more challenging. With 20 wins and a decent NET ranking, UT Martin is still in a good position, but they cannot afford to drop many more games if they want to secure a favorable seed.
The final minutes of the game were a nail-biter, with both teams trading baskets and neither able to gain a clear advantage. However, it was Little Rock's defense that ultimately made the difference, as they held UT Martin to just 2 points in the final 2 minutes of the game. The Trojans' offense, meanwhile, was able to capitalize on the Skyhawks' mistakes, scoring 5 points in the final minute to seal the win. This victory marks a significant turning point for Little Rock, as they had previously struggled to close out games, and it could be a crucial momentum-booster as they head into the final stretch of the season. With 11 wins and a strong performance against a top-200 team, the Trojans may start to receive some attention from tournament prognosticators, and this win could be the catalyst for a late-season surge.