The Mississippi State Bulldogs, with a 11-10 overall record and 3-7 conference record, are in dire need of a signature win to improve their chances of making the tournament, currently sitting at 98 in the NET rankings with a 2-8 Quad 1 record. They host the Tennessee Volunteers, who boast a 16-7 overall record and 6-4 conference record, at the Humphrey Coliseum on February 11. Tennessee's strong defense, which has allowed just 63.4 points per game in their last 5 outings, will be put to the test against Mississippi State's offense, which has scored 75.5 points per game in their last 3 games.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Have Outrebounded Opponents by 5.5 Boards per Game in Their Last 5 Outings
The game is scheduled to take place on February 11 at 7:00 PM ET at the Humphrey Coliseum, and will be broadcast on ESPN. Fans can also stream the game online through the ESPN app.
The Tennessee Volunteers have been impressive this season, with a 16-7 overall record and a 6-4 record in the SEC. They have a strong NET ranking of 21 and a quad record of 4-7 in Quad 1 games, 3-0 in Quad 2 games, and 6-0 in Quad 4 games. In their last 3 games, Tennessee has gone 2-1, with a 75-65 win over the Auburn Tigers and a 70-58 loss to the Kentucky Wildcats. The Volunteers have been led by their defense, which has allowed just 63.1 points per game this season, ranking 15th in the nation.
Key Matchups
The Mississippi State Bulldogs have struggled to find consistency this season, with a 11-10 overall record and a 3-7 record in the SEC. They have a NET ranking of 98 and a quad record of 2-8 in Quad 1 games, 1-2 in Quad 2 games, and 5-0 in Quad 4 games. In their last 3 games, Mississippi State has gone 1-2, with a 78-64 loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide and a 65-63 win over the Missouri Tigers. The Bulldogs have been led by their rebounding, which has averaged 38.5 boards per game this season, ranking 20th in the nation.
CHD Scout Prediction
Tennessee
82
Mississippi State
71
The matchup between Tennessee's defense and Mississippi State's offense matters, as the Volunteers have allowed just 42.1% shooting from the field this season, while the Bulldogs have shot 45.5% from the field. Tennessee's defense has also been effective in limiting opponents' three-point shooting, allowing just 31.4% from beyond the arc. Mississippi State, on the other hand, has struggled with turnovers, averaging 14.1 per game, which could play into Tennessee's hands. The Volunteers have forced an average of 13.5 turnovers per game this season.
For Tennessee, guard Santiago Vescovi has been on fire, averaging 18.5 points per game in his last 3 outings, including a 25-point performance against the Auburn Tigers. Forward Uros Plavsic has also been consistent, averaging 12.3 points and 6.5 rebounds per game this season. For Mississippi State, guard Dashawn Davis has been the team's leading scorer, averaging 15.1 points per game, while forward Tolu Smith has averaged 12.5 points and 8.3 rebounds per game.
Tournament Stakes
The CHD Scout prediction has Tennessee winning by 11.1 points, with a 17.5% win probability for Mississippi State. This prediction is based on the Volunteers' strong defense and the Bulldogs' struggles with turnovers. Tennessee's offense, which has averaged 73.4 points per game this season, should be able to capitalize on Mississippi State's mistakes and secure a win.
A win for Mississippi State would be a significant boost to their tournament resume, as it would be a Quad 1 win over a top-25 team. The Bulldogs currently have a 2-8 record in Quad 1 games, and a win over Tennessee would improve their chances of making the tournament. For Tennessee, a win would solidify their position as a top-4 seed, and would be their 5th Quad 1 win of the season.