In a stunning upset, the Vanderbilt Commodores, ranked 15th in the NET rankings, fell 69-65 to the Tennessee Volunteers, a team seeded just four spots ahead of them at 19th. This outcome has significant implications for both teams, particularly in terms of their seeding lines and potential tournament paths. The four-point margin of victory is a testament to the Volunteers' ability to pull off the upset, but it also highlights the Commodores' struggles to close out the game.
A closer examination of the box score reveals that both teams were evenly matched throughout the contest. The Commodores' 35-31 halftime lead was erased in the second half, as the Volunteers outscored their opponents 38-30 to take the win. The final margin may have been small, but it was enough to secure a crucial victory for Tennessee, while Vanderbilt's loss will likely send shockwaves through the college basketball world.
Ja'Kobi Gillespie's performance was instrumental in Tennessee's victory, as he led the team in scoring with 17 points on 6-of-14 shooting from the field, including a 3-of-7 mark from beyond the arc. His efficiency was particularly notable in the final minutes, where he converted on his only two free throw attempts to seal the win. Gillespie's 2 assists also demonstrated his ability to facilitate for his teammates when needed.
Nate Ament's well-rounded effort helped Tennessee secure the win, as he contributed 13 points, 9 rebounds, and 1 assist. While his shooting was not particularly efficient, Ament's ability to make 6-of-6 free throw attempts proved crucial in the game's closing minutes. His 9 rebounds also gave Tennessee a significant advantage on the glass, which was a key factor in the team's success.
Tyler Tanner's 16-point outing was a bright spot for Vanderbilt, as he shot efficiently from the field and beyond the arc. However, his inability to secure rebounds and provide additional playmaking beyond his scoring duties left the Commodores' offense vulnerable to Tennessee's stifling defense. Tanner's performance, while solid, was ultimately not enough to swing the outcome in Vanderbilt's favor.
Duke Miles struggled to find his rhythm, converting just 23% of his shots from the field and 33% from three-point range. Despite his six assists, Miles was unable to consistently create for himself or his teammates, leading to a pedestrian 12-point night. His four rebounds were a decent effort, but it was not enough to compensate for his shooting woes. Devin McGlockton's 11 points and five rebounds were solid contributions, but his lack of playmaking ability and 0 assists limited his overall impact on the game.
Jalen Washington's performance marked a significant departure from his season averages, as he nearly doubled his rebounding total, securing 10 boards to his season average of 5.7. This surge in rebounding was accompanied by a notable increase in blocking shots, where he swatted six opponents' attempts, more than quadrupling his season average of 1.4. The sharp rise in defensive rebounding and blocking presence underscored his growth as a force in the paint, as he adapted to Vanderbilt's matchup against Tennessee.
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Final
In the end, the model's prediction proved to be a misfire, as Tennessee emerged victorious by a margin of 4 points, defying the predicted Vanderbilt win by 5.7. The Commodores' normally potent offense, which has consistently shot at a high clip this season, was held in check by the Volunteers' stingy defense, failing to live up to its season average of 56.0% effective field goal percentage.
The key to Tennessee's victory lies in its ability to dominate the glass, with an in-game OREB rate of 37.1%, significantly higher than its season average. This allowed the Volunteers to limit Vanderbilt's opportunities for second-chance scoring and control the tempo of the game. Conversely, the Commodores' struggles on the boards, with a season-low in-game OREB rate of 24.1%, hindered their ability to capitalize on their offense's normal efficiency, ultimately contributing to their downfall.
Tennessee's victory marks a crucial Quad 1 win, bolstering its NCAA Tournament resume and potentially nudging the Volunteers into the 3-seed range, given their improved NET ranking and strong Quad 1 performance. With their Quad 1 record now at 4-7, Tennessee's chances of securing a top 3 seed have increased, but they still need to navigate their remaining schedule to solidify their position. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt's loss, despite their strong overall record, may lead to a slight drop in seeding, potentially putting them on the bubble as a 6-seed or lower. Their Quad 1 record now stands at 7-4, and a more cautious approach may be warranted as they face a tougher stretch of games. For Tennessee, this win is a significant statement, but consistency will be key to staying in contention for a top seeding.