The University of Texas at Arlington Mavericks and the Utah Valley University Wolverines are set to face off at the Orleans Arena, a neutral site, on March 13. This Western Athletic Conference tournament matchup pits two teams with differing levels of recent success, as Utah Valley rides a five-game win streak into the contest, while UT Arlington has gone 3-2 over its last five games. The Mavericks most recently notched a 69-63 win over Southern Utah, but they will undoubtedly face a stiffer test against the Wolverines.
Despite Utah Valley being the heavy favorite, according to model predictions, UT Arlington can still pose a threat if they can capitalize on any vulnerabilities in the Wolverines' game. The Mavericks will need to bring their best effort to pull off the upset, which would require a strong team performance and potentially exploiting any areas where Utah Valley has shown weakness. Meanwhile, the Wolverines, with their impressive recent form, still have something to prove - that they can translate their regular season success into a conference tournament championship, their only viable path to the NCAA Tournament.
With a record of 18-13, UT Arlington enters this matchup having won three of its last five games, including a 69-63 victory over Southern Utah on March 12. Averaging 12.9 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, while his 5.2 rebounds per game have also been crucial. The team's recent form has been marked by a 64-57 win at Abilene Christian on March 7, where 's 3.2 assists per game average played a significant role in the team's success. His 10.4 points per game have also been a key factor in UT Arlington's offense.
The team's leading rebounder, with 6.4 rebounds per game, is , who is also averaging 11.7 points per game. His performance, along with that of Marcell McCreary, will be critical in this game. With contributing 6.6 points per game and adding 5.8 points per game, UT Arlington has a balanced offense that can pose challenges to opponents. In their last meeting with Utah Valley, which resulted in a 54-66 loss on February 21, the team struggled to find its rhythm, but with their recent wins, they will look to bounce back and even the score.
Averaging 15.5 points per game, 's contributions have been crucial to Utah Valley's success, with his 6.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game making him a well-rounded threat. The team's strong recent form, which includes wins over Utah Tech, Southern Utah, Abilene Christian, Tarleton State, and UT Arlington, has been fueled in part by 's 12.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game. With a 24-7 overall record and a 14-4 mark in the WAC, Utah Valley has established itself as a formidable opponent, and ' 11.1 points per game have been a key factor in this success.
His 45% three-point shooting has been a valuable asset to Utah Valley's offense, and ' 11.0 points per game have helped to balance the team's scoring attack. As the team prepares to face UT Arlington, 's 7.6 points and 2.9 rebounds per game will be important in providing depth and support to the starting lineup. With their recent wins, including a 104-101 victory at Utah Tech and a 92-88 win at Southern Utah, Utah Valley has demonstrated its ability to perform under pressure, and the team's key players will be counted on to deliver in this upcoming matchup.
Key Matchups
The matchup between UT Arlington's Raysean Seamster and Utah Valley's Jackson Holcombe will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Seamster's ability to contain Holcombe, who averages 15.5 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, will be crucial in limiting Utah Valley's scoring opportunities. If Seamster can use his 6.4 rebounds per game to outmuscle Holcombe in the paint, it could significantly disrupt Utah Valley's offense.
Seamster's own scoring ability, averaging 11.7 points per game, will also be tested as he faces off against Holcombe, a versatile player who contributes across the board. If Seamster can find a way to outscore Holcombe while also defending him effectively, it could give UT Arlington a significant advantage. The outcome of this individual battle will have a profound impact on the team's overall performance, making it the key matchup to watch in this game.
CHD Scout Prediction
UT Arlington
67
Utah Valley
76
Based on the model's prediction, which favors Utah Valley 76-67 with a 77.3% win probability, I agree that Utah Valley will emerge victorious. The primary reason for this assessment is the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Utah Valley holding a substantial advantage at #85 compared to UT Arlington's #162. This difference in ranking suggests that Utah Valley has performed more consistently against stronger opponents, which should give them an edge in this neutral-site matchup.
Tournament Stakes
As the regular season winds down, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams' conference tournament positioning, with Utah Valley currently sitting in a stronger spot in the WAC standings. A win for Utah Valley would help solidify their standing, potentially setting them up for a more favorable draw in the conference tournament, while a loss could create a logjam at the top of the standings. For UT Arlington, a victory would be a crucial step in bolstering their chances of securing a higher seed in the conference tournament, potentially avoiding a first-round matchup against a lower-seeded team. Given Utah Valley's NET ranking of #85 and UT Arlington's #162, this game is a Quad 2 matchup for Utah Valley and a Quad 1 matchup for UT Arlington, highlighting the disparity in their respective schedules. Ultimately, the outcome of this game will have a profound impact on the trajectory of each program, and it's clear that Utah Valley's postseason hopes are on far more solid ground, making UT Arlington's task all the more daunting.