The Texas at San Antonio Roadrunners, ranked 351 in the NET, pulled off a stunning 88-79 upset over the UNC Charlotte 49ers, ranked 164, in a game that will be remembered for its shocking outcome, with UTSA outscoring Charlotte 50-35 in the second half. Charlotte, with a 13-12 record, had been averaging 70.2 points per game over their last 5, but their defense, which had allowed 73.4 points per game in that stretch, was unable to contain UTSA's offense, which scored 88 points, 17 more than their average over the last 5 games. UTSA, on the other hand, had lost all 5 of their previous games, being outscored by an average of 15.2 points, but they were able to turn their fortunes around, led by Jamir Simpson's 20 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists. This win, a Quadrant 3 game for UTSA and a Quadrant 4 game for Charlotte, will have real consequences for both teams' tournament prospects, with Charlotte's loss likely ending their faint hopes of making the tournament.
The game was closely contested in the first half, with Charlotte taking a 44-38 lead into the break, but UTSA came out strong in the second half, outscoring Charlotte 50-35 to take the 88-79 win. UTSA's 50 points in the second half were the most they had scored in a half all season, and it was a reflection of their ability to adjust their strategy and come out strong after the break. Ben Bradford, Charlotte's top performer, had 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 5 assists, but it was not enough to overcome UTSA's balanced attack, which saw three players score 16 or more points. UTSA's 88 points were the most they had scored all season, and it was a significant improvement over their average of 71 points per game over the last 5 games.
UTSA's 88 Points Were The Most They Had Scored All Season
The stat line for Jamir Simpson does not do justice to his clutch performance, as he hit several big shots late to seal the win for UTSA. Brent Moss and Baboucarr Njie also had big games for UTSA, scoring 16 points each, and their contributions were crucial in the second half, when UTSA outscored Charlotte by 15 points. On the other hand, Charlotte's Major Freeman and Damoni Harrison, who had been averaging 10.5 and 9.5 points per game respectively over the last 5 games, were relatively quiet, scoring 13 and 11 points respectively, but their shooting percentages were not enough to overcome UTSA's strong team defense. UTSA's ability to shut down Charlotte's offense in the second half was the key to their win, as they held Charlotte to just 35 points, 10 fewer than their average over the last 5 games.
The CHD Scout had predicted a 19.9-point win for Charlotte, but that prediction was wildly inaccurate, as UTSA's strong second-half performance propelled them to the 9-point upset win.
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The prediction model missed the fact that UTSA had been playing better than their record suggested, with their last 5 games being against tough opponents, and they were due for a breakthrough win. Additionally, the model did not account for Charlotte's recent trend of struggling in the second half, where they had been outscored by an average of 3.2 points per game over their last 5 games. UTSA's ability to capitalize on Charlotte's weaknesses and adjust their strategy at halftime was the key to their win, and it was something that the prediction model did not anticipate.
The implications of this win for UTSA's tournament prospects are significant, as it gives them a much-needed Quadrant 3 win, and it improves their record to 5-20. However, their NET ranking of 351 is still a major obstacle, and they must win several more games to have any chance of making the tournament. For Charlotte, the loss is a devastating blow to their tournament hopes, as it drops their record to 13-12 and hurts their chances of making the tournament.
The win for UTSA does not significantly improve their tournament prospects, but it does give them a glimmer of hope, and it shows that they are capable of competing with better teams. For Charlotte, the loss is a significant setback, and it will likely drop them out of the tournament conversation. The graphic shows that UTSA's win improves their NET ranking, but it is still not enough to get them into the tournament picture. Charlotte's loss, on the other hand, drops their NET ranking and hurts their chances of making the tournament.
In terms of recent form, UTSA had been struggling, losing all 5 of their previous games, but they were able to turn their fortunes around with this win. Charlotte, on the other hand, had been playing well, winning 3 of their last 5 games, but they were unable to build on that momentum in this game. UTSA's ability to adjust their strategy and come out strong in the second half was the key to their win, and it was something that Charlotte was unable to overcome. The 9-point margin of victory for UTSA was a significant upset, given the 187-spot difference in NET rankings between the two teams, and it will likely have a major impact on the tournament prospects of both teams.