The Texas Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros and McNeese State Cowboys are set to clash on February 23 at Townsley Law Arena, a matchup that carries significant implications for the Southland Conference standings. With both teams firmly entrenched in the conference title hunt, this contest will play a crucial role in shaping the postseason landscape. The Vaqueros, having won four of their last five outings, including a decisive victory over Southeastern Louisiana, will look to build on their recent momentum against the Cowboys.
As the regular season enters its final stretch, the margins between success and disappointment are razor-thin, and this game is a prime example. McNeese, riding a five-game win streak, will aim to maintain their position atop the conference leaderboard, while UTRGV seeks to bolster their own tournament prospects. With neither team in contention for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid, the Southland Conference tournament auto-bid remains the sole path to postseason play, amplifying the importance of this matchup and the need for both teams to perform at their highest level.
Averaging 13.7 points per game, has been a key contributor to Texas Rio Grande Valley's 16-12 record, with the team also boasting a 12-7 mark in the Southland Conference. The team's leading scorer, however, is not solely responsible for their recent form, as his 45% three-point shooting has been complemented by 's 13.4 points per game. His 4.4 rebounds per game have also been crucial in Texas Rio Grande Valley's victories, including a 96-75 win at SE Louisiana on February 21 and a 70-65 win against Lamar on February 16.
With 's 5.1 rebounds per game providing a boost on the glass, Texas Rio Grande Valley has been able to secure important wins, such as their 92-72 victory at Nicholls on February 9. 's 3.8 assists per game have also been vital in facilitating the team's offense, while Kye Dickson's 8.6 points per game have provided a scoring spark off the bench. His 2.6 rebounds per game may not be as high as some of his teammates, but Kye Dickson's overall contribution has helped Texas Rio Grande Valley navigate a challenging schedule, including a 57-66 loss to Stephen F. Austin on February 14, ahead of their upcoming matchup against McNeese.
With a 23-5 overall record and 16-3 mark in the Southland Conference, McNeese has established itself as a formidable opponent. Averaging 16.0 points per game, the team's leading scorer is backed by a strong supporting cast, including , whose 13.9 points per game have been crucial in recent victories. His 2.7 assists per game have also helped to facilitate the offense, as evidenced by the team's decisive wins over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Northwestern State.
The team's recent form has been impressive, with five consecutive wins, including a 70-54 victory over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and a 75-64 win at Northwestern State. His 45% three-point shooting has been a key factor in McNeese's success, and with and contributing 11.0 and 8.3 points per game, respectively, the team has a balanced attack. 's 3.9 assists per game have also been vital in orchestrating the team's offense, and his ability to create scoring opportunities for and other teammates will be important in this matchup.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Koree Cotton and Larry Johnson will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. As the primary scoring threats for their respective teams, their individual performances will have a significant impact on the overall flow of the game. Cotton's ability to balance scoring and playmaking, with 2.5 assists per game, will be tested by Johnson's scoring prowess, and vice versa. If either player can assert their dominance, it could create a ripple effect that influences the rest of the team's performance.
Johnson's slight edge in scoring average, combined with his comparable rebounding numbers to Cotton, makes him a formidable opponent. However, Cotton's higher assist average suggests he may be able to involve his teammates more effectively, potentially creating a more balanced attack. The outcome of this head-to-head battle will likely hinge on which player can more effectively adapt to the other's strengths and weaknesses, and exploit any openings that arise.
CHD Scout Prediction
Texas Rio Grande Valley
68
McNeese
76
Based on the model's prediction, which gives McNeese a 74.9% win probability with a projected score of 76-68, I agree that McNeese will emerge victorious. The primary reason for this pick is the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with McNeese holding a substantial advantage at #57 compared to Texas Rio Grande Valley's #135 ranking, indicating a notable difference in overall team strength and performance throughout the season.
Tournament Stakes
As the season enters its final stretch, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams' conference tournament positioning. A win for McNeese would bolster their chances of securing a high seed in the Southland Conference tournament, potentially setting them up for a more favorable path to the championship game. Meanwhile, Texas Rio Grande Valley is looking to solidify their standing in the middle of the conference pack, where a few teams are jostling for position. With a victory, the Vaqueros could gain ground on their competitors and improve their own seeding, while a loss would put them at risk of falling further down the standings. In a conference where only the tournament champion will advance to the NCAA Tournament, the stakes are clear, and this game is a crucial step in the trajectory of both programs: McNeese is poised to take a significant step forward, while Texas Rio Grande Valley is fighting to stay relevant.