As we dive into the second half of the college basketball season, the margins between tournament hopefuls and bubble teams are thinner than ever. For teams like Coastal Carolina and Texas State, every game is an opportunity to bolster their resumes and make a case for a spot in the Big Dance. The Chanticleers, riding a three-game win streak, welcome the Bobcats to The HTC Center, where a victory would not only extend their momentum but also provide a much-needed quality win.
Both teams boast identical 11-9 overall records, but their paths to this point have been vastly different. Coastal Carolina, with a NET ranking of 233, has struggled against top-tier opponents, going 1-2 in Quad 2 games and 4-1 in Quad 3 contests. Texas State, on the other hand, has a NET ranking of 264 and has yet to secure a win against a Quad 2 or Quad 3 foe, making this matchup a Quad 3 opportunity for the Bobcats and a Quad 4 game for the Chanticleers. The CHD Scout prediction favors Coastal Carolina by 3.5 points, with a 62.7% win probability, suggesting that the home team's recent form and familiarity with the venue might give them a slight edge.
CHD Scout Prediction
Texas State
71
Coastal Carolina
74
With both teams needing quality wins to build their tournament resumes, this game takes on added significance. A win for either side would not only boost their confidence but also provide a crucial metric for the selection committee to consider. As it stands, both Coastal Carolina and Texas State are on the outside looking in, but a strong finish to the season could propel them into the conversation.
In terms of player momentum, neither team has a standout performer on a hot streak, making this matchup more about the teams' overall cohesion and strategy. Given the CHD Scout prediction and Coastal Carolina's recent form, I predict the Chanticleers will emerge victorious, 74-71. The home crowd and the team's ability to capitalize on Texas State's struggles against better opponents should be enough to secure a narrow win. With the stakes high and the margin for error low, this game promises to be an intense, back-and-forth affair that will have real consequences for both teams' tournament aspirations.