In a stunning upset, Louisiana, ranked 318th in the NET rankings, defeated Texas State, 229th in the NET rankings, 67-54 at the Cajundome. The margin of 13 points belies the extent of the Bobcats' dominance, as they outscored the Robert Morris of the South team 36-33 in the second half, only to fall short of a comeback. Louisiana's 34-18 first-half advantage set the tone for the game, but the outcome remained uncertain until the final whistle.
This result has significant implications for seeding in the upcoming conference tournament, as a lower-ranked team has pulled off a major upset. Texas State, which had been considered a favorite, will now have to regroup and reassess its chances, while Louisiana, a team that had been struggling to find consistency, has breathed new life into its season.
Jaxon Olvera led the charge for Louisiana, scoring 20 points on 7-14 shooting from the field and 2-3 from three-point range. He also grabbed four rebounds and dished out one assist, providing a well-rounded contribution to the team's effort. His shooting efficiency was a key factor in the Bobcats' success, as he was able to find his stroke from beyond the arc and in the paint.
Dorian Finister and Dariyus Woodson also played significant roles for the Bobcats. Finister chipped in 15 points, five rebounds, and five assists, while also blocking one shot on the defensive end. Woodson, meanwhile, scored 12 points on a perfect 4-4 from three-point range, making him a valuable asset off the bench. His hot shooting helped to stretch the defense and create opportunities for his teammates to capitalize.
DJ Hall's 18 points were a bright spot for the Bobcats, but ultimately not enough to compensate for their overall struggles. Hall's 6 rebounds and 1 block were also notable, but his shooting efficiency was somewhat inconsistent, converting just 50% of his field goal attempts. Despite his strong scoring performance, Hall was also held to just 1 assist, a relatively low output for a player of his caliber.
Mark Drone and Kaden Gumbs both struggled to find their footing on offense, with Drone shooting just 27% from the field and Gumbs converting only 60% of his free throw attempts. Drone's 3 assists were a rare bright spot, but his overall performance was marked by inefficiency. Gumbs' 9 points were also a modest output, particularly considering the Bobcats' need for scoring punch in the paint.
Todd Jones Jr. of Louisiana exceeded his season averages in a significant manner, particularly in rebounding and blocked shots. His eight rebounds represent a substantial increase from his average, as does his five blocked shots, which more than quadrupled his season average. This uptick in defensive production suggests Jones Jr. may be finding a greater role in the paint, capitalizing on opportunities to secure rebounds and protect the rim.
CHD Scout Report Card
INCORRECTPredicted
Final
The pre-game prediction, which favored Texas State by 7.6 points, was wide off the mark as Louisiana emerged victorious by a 13-point margin. This discrepancy can be attributed to a significant shift in Louisiana's shooting efficiency, which rose to 58.9% in this contest from its season average of 47.6%. Conversely, Texas State struggled to find its rhythm on offense, managing only a 39.2% effective field goal percentage, a stark contrast to its season average of 50.0%.
The decisive factors in Louisiana's win were its improved shooting and a notable disparity in rebounding efficiency. Louisiana's elevated 3-point shooting percentage of 69.2% proved to be a significant advantage, while Texas State's 16.7% 3-point shooting was well below its season average. Furthermore, Louisiana's increased OREB rate of 28.0% allowed it to secure crucial rebounds and maintain possession, whereas Texas State's OREB rate of 32.1% was unable to compensate for its shooting woes. These statistical discrepancies ultimately contributed to the 13-point margin in favor of Louisiana.
The outcome of this game has significant implications for both teams' NCAA Tournament resumes. For Louisiana, the victory serves as a much-needed boost to its NET ranking, but it does little to alter its Quad 1 and Quad 2 records, which remain barren. Given the Bobcats' subpar performance, it's unlikely they'll earn a high seed, potentially slotting them into a 15-seed or lower position in the tournament. Conversely, Texas State's loss, coupled with its mediocre NET ranking, will make it an underdog for an at-large bid, forcing the Bobcats to rely on a conference tournament title to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The loss will undoubtedly hurt Texas State's seeding prospects, relegating them to a likely 14-seed or lower.