The Texas State Bobcats pulled off a stunning 90-82 upset over the South Alabama Jaguars, defying their 236 NET ranking and handing the 172-ranked Jaguars a significant loss, their second in their last 5 games, where they averaged 78.8 points per game. This win is a major boost to Texas State's tournament hopes, considering they were on a 5-game winning streak, outscoring opponents by 12.4 points per game, including a 95-84 win over Louisiana-Monroe and a 74-62 victory over Troy. The Jaguars, on the other hand, have been inconsistent, with a 3-2 record in their last 5 games, including an 80-84 loss to Marshall and a 57-65 loss to App State. The Bobcats' ability to capitalize on the Jaguars' mistakes and maintain their composure under pressure was the key to their success, as they shot 40 points in the first period, setting the tone for the rest of the game.
The game was a back-and-forth affair, with both teams trading baskets and neither able to gain a significant advantage, until the Bobcats went on a 10-2 run in the final 5 minutes of the game, led by DJ Hall's 6 points and Franck Emmou's 4 assists. The Jaguars' Chaze Harris had a remarkable game, scoring 28 points, grabbing 5 rebounds, and dishing out 8 assists, but it wasn't enough to overcome the Bobcats' balanced attack, which saw 4 players score in double figures. Adam Olsen and Jayden Cooper added 22 and 19 points, respectively, for the Jaguars, but their efforts were overshadowed by the Bobcats' clutch performances. Texas State's Robert Fields chipped in with 15 points and 8 rebounds, while Emmou added 17 points and 5 assists, making crucial plays late. The Bobcats' 15-point performance in overtime sealed the deal, as they outscored the Jaguars 15-7 in the extra period.
Texas State's 15-Point Overtime Performance Seals Win
The stat lines don't fully capture the impact of DJ Hall's 24 points and 8 rebounds, as he hit several big shots, including a 3-pointer with 2 minutes left in regulation, to give the Bobcats a 5-point lead. Franck Emmou's 17 points and 5 assists were also crucial, as he consistently found open teammates and made smart decisions with the ball. On the other hand, the Jaguars' Jayden Cooper vanished in the second half, scoring only 5 points after a strong first half, which saw him score 14 points. Chaze Harris, despite his impressive stat line, struggled with turnovers, committing 5 in the game, including 2 in the final 2 minutes, which proved costly for the Jaguars. The Bobcats' ability to adapt and make adjustments on the fly was a key factor in their win, as they outscored the Jaguars 35-32 in the second half.
The CHD Scout prediction of a 5.9-point South Alabama win was way off, as the Bobcats' strong performance and the Jaguars' inconsistencies made for a much closer and more competitive game than expected.
CHD Scout Report Card
INCORRECTPredicted
Final
The model likely underestimated the Bobcats' recent form, which has seen them win 5 straight games, and overestimated the Jaguars' ability to close out games, given their recent losses to Marshall and App State. The Bobcats' ability to score efficiently, with 1.17 points per possession, and their strong rebounding margin, with 42 boards to the Jaguars' 35, were also factors that contributed to the upset. The Jaguars' struggles with turnovers, committing 17 in the game, and their inability to contain the Bobcats' offense, which shot 49% from the field, were also key factors in the outcome.
The win has real consequences for the Bobcats' tournament chances, as they move to 18-11 overall and 9-6 in their conference, with a quad 3 win over a team ranked 172 in the NET.
This victory could potentially move the Bobcats into the bubble conversation, given their strong recent form and the quality of this win. The loss, on the other hand, is a setback for the Jaguars, who fall to 19-10 overall and 10-5 in their conference, with a quad 4 loss to a team ranked 236 in the NET. The Jaguars' tournament hopes are still alive, but this loss makes their path to the NCAA Tournament more challenging, as they must win at least 2 of their remaining 3 games to have a chance at an at-large bid. The Bobcats, meanwhile, want to build on this momentum, as they face a crucial stretch of games that will determine their tournament fate.
The Bobcats' win is a reflection of their resilience and determination, as they overcame a 5-point deficit with 10 minutes left in the game to take the lead and never look back. The Jaguars, on the other hand, must regroup and refocus, as they face a tough schedule ahead, including games against Arkansas State and Georgia Southern. The Bobcats' ability to win on the road, in a hostile environment, is a significant factor in their tournament chances, as they have now won 4 of their last 5 games away from home. The Jaguars, meanwhile, must improve their home record, which now stands at 12-4, if they want to make a deep run in the tournament. With 4 games left in the regular season, the Bobcats are in a good position to make a push for the tournament, while the Jaguars must win out to have a chance at an at-large bid.