The Texas Tech Red Raiders pulled off a stunning 78-75 upset over the Arizona Wildcats, with JT Toppin leading the charge with 31 points and 13 rebounds. This victory marked a significant milestone for Texas Tech, as they handed Arizona their 3rd loss of the season, despite being ranked 15 spots lower in the NET rankings. Arizona, who came into the game with a 23-2 record, was predicted to win by 18 points, but Texas Tech had other plans, outscoring the Wildcats 12-9 in overtime to secure the win. The Red Raiders' 19-6 record now looks even more impressive, with this Q1 win over a top-2 team.
JT Toppin's 31 Points Mark 4th 30-Point Game of the Season
The game was a back-and-forth affair, with both teams trading baskets throughout the first half, which ended with the score tied at 32-32. The second half saw more of the same, with Arizona taking a 66-63 lead with just over 2 minutes remaining. However, Texas Tech refused to back down, scoring 5 unanswered points to take a 68-66 lead with 1:15 left. The Wildcats managed to tie the game at 68-68, sending it to overtime, where the Red Raiders outscored Arizona 12-9 to secure the 78-75 win. Tobe Awaka had a strong game for Arizona, finishing with 16 points and 12 rebounds, but it wasn't enough to overcome the heroics of JT Toppin, who scored 31 points on 11-20 shooting. The Wildcats' 75 points were their 2nd-lowest total of the season, and their 34.6% 3-point shooting was a major factor in their loss.
JT Toppin was the clear star of the show, finishing with 31 points, 13 rebounds, and 2 assists, while shooting 55% from the field. Christian Anderson chipped in with 19 points, 6 rebounds, and 8 assists, while Donovan Atwell added 11 points and 5 rebounds for the Red Raiders. For Arizona, Tobe Awaka had a double-double with 16 points and 12 rebounds, while Brayden Burries scored 16 points and grabbed 5 rebounds. Ivan Kharchenkov also had a solid game, finishing with 13 points on 5-10 shooting. The Red Raiders' balanced attack, which saw 3 players score in double figures, was a key factor in their win.
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The Red Raiders outrebounded the Wildcats 43-38, including 15-10 on the offensive glass, which led to 12 second-chance points. Texas Tech also shot 45.5% from the field, compared to Arizona's 41.4%, and made 7-20 3-pointers, while the Wildcats made just 5-17. The Red Raiders' 12-9 advantage in overtime was the difference-maker, as they outscored Arizona by 3 points in the extra period. The Wildcats' 14 turnovers, which led to 18 Texas Tech points, were also a major factor in their loss. Arizona's 2nd-ranked NET ranking will likely take a hit after this loss, while Texas Tech's 17th-ranked NET ranking will likely rise.
The CHD Scout model predicted a comfortable 87-69 win for Arizona, with a predicted margin of 18 points. However, the actual result was a far cry from that, with Texas Tech pulling off the 3-point upset. The model clearly underestimated the Red Raiders, who have now won 5 of their last 6 games. The predicted score of 87-69 was way off, as the actual score was 78-75 in favor of Texas Tech. This loss will likely drop Arizona's NET ranking, while Texas Tech's win will boost their resume.
This win was a major boost to Texas Tech's resume, as it marked a Q1 win over a top-2 team. The Red Raiders' NET ranking of 17 will likely rise after this win, while Arizona's NET ranking of 2 will likely drop. The Wildcats' loss also marked their 3rd of the season, and their 2nd at home. Texas Tech's win improved their record to 19-6, while Arizona's loss dropped their record to 23-3. This game will likely have real consequences for both teams' tournament seeding, with Texas Tech potentially rising to a 4- or 5-seed, while Arizona may fall to a 2-seed.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders want to build on this momentum as they face off against the Baylor Bears on February 18th. The Arizona Wildcats, on the other hand, will try to bounce back from this loss as they take on the UCLA Bruins on February 19th. Both games matters for each team's tournament hopes, and will likely have a significant impact on their NET rankings.