Monmouth defeats Towson 72-71

The Monmouth Hawks, ranked 194 in the NET rankings, pulled off a stunning 72-71 upset over the Towson Tigers, ranked 174, in a game that will have real consequences for both teams' seed lines. This win, a mere 1-point margin, is a reflection of Monmouth's resilience, as they managed to hold off a late Towson surge. The Hawks, averaging 79.4 points per game over their last 5 contests, were expected to win by 8.8 points according to the CHD Scout prediction, but the actual game was much closer, with Monmouth trailing by as many as 5 points with just over 2 minutes remaining. However, a 7-2 run, capped off by a Kavion McClain layup with 1:17 left, gave Monmouth the lead for good. McClain finished with 17 points and 5 assists, while Justin Ray added 15 points for the Hawks.

The Towson Tigers, on the other hand, were looking to build on their recent form, having averaged 69.2 points per game over their last 5 contests, but their usually stingy defense, which had allowed just 68 points per game over that stretch, was unable to contain Monmouth's offense. Dylan Williamson led the way for Towson with 27 points, but it wasn't enough to overcome the Hawks' balanced attack. The Tigers had been 2-3 over their last 5 games, with wins over Stony Brook and Hampton, but this loss will be a tough pill to swallow. With just over 5 minutes left, Towson held a 62-57 lead, but Monmouth's Jason Rivera-Torres sparked a 10-2 run with a 3-pointer, and the Hawks never looked back. Rivera-Torres finished with 10 points, 13 rebounds, and 5 assists, a well-rounded performance that helped Monmouth secure the win.

The individual performances in this game were crucial, with McClain and Rivera-Torres leading the charge for Monmouth. McClain's ability to score and distribute the ball was key, as he hit several big shots, including a 3-pointer with 8:45 left to give Monmouth a 53-50 lead. Rivera-Torres, on the other hand, did the dirty work, grabbing 13 rebounds and dishing out 5 assists, including a crucial pass to McClain for the layup that gave Monmouth the lead for good. For Towson, Williamson was the main threat, scoring 27 points on 10-20 shooting, but he received little help from his supporting cast. Tyler Tejada added 16 points and 5 rebounds, but the Tigers' bench was outscored 15-8 by Monmouth's reserves.

The CHD Scout prediction, which had Monmouth winning by 8.8 points, was correct in terms of the winner, but the margin was much closer than expected.

The reason for this discrepancy lies in the fact that the model likely underestimated the impact of Towson's defense, which had been solid over the last 5 games, allowing just 68 points per contest. However, Monmouth's offense, which had been averaging 79.4 points per game over that stretch, was able to exploit some weaknesses in the Tigers' defense, particularly in the paint, where they scored 32 points. The model also likely overestimated the impact of Towson's offense, which had been averaging just 69.2 points per game over the last 5 contests.

The implications of this win for Monmouth are significant, as it improves their record to 14-12 and gives them a much-needed boost in the NET rankings. The Hawks had been 4-1 over their last 5 games, with wins over Drexel, Stony Brook, North Carolina A&T, and Campbell, and this win makes it 5-1 over their last 6.

This win will likely move Monmouth up a few spots in the NET rankings, potentially into the 180s, and gives them a Quad 4 win, which will help their tournament resume. For Towson, the loss is a setback, as it drops their record to 14-13 and gives them a Quad 3 loss. The Tigers had been 2-3 over their last 5 games, and this loss makes it 2-4 over their last 6. The loss will likely drop Towson a few spots in the NET rankings, potentially into the 180s, and gives them a Quad 3 loss, which will hurt their tournament chances.

In terms of recent form, Monmouth has been on a tear, winning 5 of their last 6 games, including a 93-73 win over Drexel and a 76-75 win over Stony Brook. The Hawks have been averaging 79.4 points per game over that stretch, and their offense has been clicking on all cylinders. Towson, on the other hand, has been struggling, losing 4 of their last 6 games, including a 49-71 loss to Hofstra and a 73-80 loss to North Carolina A&T. The Tigers have been averaging just 69.2 points per game over that stretch, and their offense has been sputtering.

The game was a back-and-forth affair, with neither team able to gain a clear advantage until the final minutes. Monmouth's defense, which had been allowing 75 points per game over the last 5 contests, was able to hold Towson to just 40 points in the second half, including just 10 points over the final 5 minutes. The Hawks' offense, on the other hand, was able to score 39 points in the second half, including 10 points over the final 2 minutes. The win is a huge boost for Monmouth's tournament chances, and gives them a much-needed win over a team ranked higher in the NET rankings.

As the season enters its final stretch, this win will be a crucial one for Monmouth, as it gives them a Quad 4 win and improves their record to 14-12. The Hawks have a few tough games remaining on their schedule, including a matchup against Hofstra, but this win gives them momentum and confidence heading into the final stretch. For Towson, the loss is a setback, but the Tigers still have a chance to make a push for the tournament, with a few winnable games remaining on their schedule.