The UC San Diego Tritons, with their 16-8 record, are looking to capitalize on their home-court advantage against the UC Davis Aggies, who have a 15-9 overall record and a 166 NET ranking. A win for either team would significantly impact their tournament chances, particularly for UC San Diego, who are 0-1 in Quad 1 games and 0-1 in Quad 2 games. The Tritons have struggled in their last five games, going 1-4, including a loss to a Quad 4 opponent. UC Davis, on the other hand, has won three of their last five games, with their most recent victory coming against a conference opponent.
UC San Diego Tritons Have Struggled Against Top-200 Teams, Posting a 4-7 Record
The game is scheduled for February 12, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET, and will be held at the LionTree Arena. Fans can catch the action on various streaming platforms, with the over/under set at 149.5 points and UC San Diego favored by 5.5 points.
The UC Davis Aggies have compiled a 15-9 overall record, with an 8-5 mark in the Big West conference. Their 166 NET ranking puts them in a precarious position, as they are 1-1 in Quad 1 games and 1-2 in Quad 2 games. The Aggies have a 4-4 record in Quad 3 games and a 7-2 record in Quad 4 games. In their last three games, UC Davis has averaged 74.3 points per game, while allowing their opponents to score 71.3 points per contest. With a 45.1% field goal percentage and a 36.2% three-point percentage, the Aggies want to exploit UC San Diego's defense, which has allowed 42.5% shooting from the field and 34.5% from beyond the arc.
Key Matchups
The UC San Diego Tritons have a 16-8 overall record, with a 6-7 mark in the Big West conference. Their 128 NET ranking is a significant factor in their tournament hopes, but their 0-1 record in Quad 1 games and 0-1 record in Quad 2 games raises concerns. The Tritons have a 7-3 record in Quad 3 games and a 7-4 record in Quad 4 games. In their last five games, UC San Diego has averaged 75.6 points per game, while allowing their opponents to score 73.2 points per contest. With a 44.2% field goal percentage and a 33.5% three-point percentage, the Tritons want to contain UC Davis's offense, which has averaged 73.1 points per game over the same period.
The matchup between UC Davis and UC San Diego will be a battle of contrasting styles, with the Aggies preferring a faster pace (71.4 possessions per game) and the Tritons favoring a more methodical approach (68.5 possessions per game). UC San Diego's defense, which has allowed 42.5% shooting from the field, will be tested by UC Davis's 45.1% field goal percentage. The Aggies' three-point defense, which has allowed 34.5% shooting from beyond the arc, will face a UC San Diego team that has made 33.5% of their three-point attempts. The CHD Scout prediction favors UC San Diego by 5.3 points, with a 67.8% win probability for the Tritons.
CHD Scout Prediction
UC Davis
73
UC San Diego
78
For UC Davis, guard Elijah Pepper has been on a hot streak, averaging 18.3 points per game over the last five contests, including a 25-point performance against a conference opponent. Forward Christian Anigwe has also been consistent, averaging 12.1 points and 7.3 rebounds per game over the same period. For UC San Diego, guard Bryce Pope has been the team's leading scorer, averaging 15.6 points per game, while forward Toni Rocak has contributed 12.4 points and 6.5 rebounds per contest. With no significant player momentum data available, both teams will rely on their overall team performance to secure a win.
Tournament Stakes
The CHD Scout prediction favors UC San Diego by 5.3 points, with a 67.8% win probability for the Tritons. This prediction is based on the teams' overall performance, including their NET rankings, quad records, and recent form. UC San Diego's home-court advantage and slightly better NET ranking contribute to their favored status. However, UC Davis's ability to win on the road (7-4 away record) and their recent hot streak make them a formidable opponent.
A win for UC San Diego would significantly boost their tournament resume, particularly given their current 0-1 record in Quad 1 games and 0-1 record in Quad 2 games. The Tritons' 128 NET ranking puts them on the bubble, and a quality win against UC Davis (Quad 2 opponent) would help them move up the rankings. For UC Davis, a win would be a significant Quad 2 victory, improving their 1-2 record in such games and bolstering their 166 NET ranking. The Aggies' tournament hopes rely heavily on their ability to secure quality wins, making this game a crucial matchup for both teams.