The Cal Poly Mustangs pulled off a stunning 79-73 upset over the UC Irvine Anteaters, with Guzman Vasilic leading the charge with 18 points and 5 rebounds. This victory marks a significant milestone for Cal Poly, as they defeated a team ranked 138 spots higher in the NET rankings, with UC Irvine sitting at 118 and Cal Poly at 256. The 6-point margin of victory is even more impressive considering Cal Poly was predicted to lose by 10.5 points, according to the CHD Scout prediction.
Cal Poly's 50-31 Second-Half Outscoring of UC Irvine Marks Largest Comeback of the Season
The game got off to a rocky start for Cal Poly, as they trailed 42-29 at halftime, with UC Irvine's Jurian Dixon scoring 12 of his 19 points in the first half. However, Cal Poly mounted a furious comeback in the second half, outscoring UC Irvine 50-31, including a 15-5 run to take the lead with 10 minutes remaining. Cal Poly's Austin Goode and Cayden Ward played crucial roles in the comeback, scoring 17 and 15 points, respectively, and grabbing a combined 20 rebounds. UC Irvine, on the other hand, struggled to find their rhythm in the second half, shooting just 34.5% from the field and committing 12 turnovers.
Guzman Vasilic and Jurian Dixon were the top performers for their respective teams, with Vasilic scoring 18 points and Dixon scoring 19. Cal Poly's Austin Goode and Cayden Ward also had impressive games, with Goode scoring 17 points and grabbing 10 rebounds, and Ward scoring 15 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. For UC Irvine, Derin Saran added 17 points and 5 rebounds, while Kyle Evans chipped in with 11 points and 10 rebounds. The Cal Poly big men outrebounded their UC Irvine counterparts 40-35, including 15 offensive rebounds that led to 20 second-chance points.
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The key to Cal Poly's victory was their ability to outscore UC Irvine in the paint, 40-28, and outrebound them 40-35. Cal Poly also shot 44.7% from the field, including 35.7% from three-point range, while UC Irvine shot just 41.9% from the field and 30.8% from three-point range. The 12 turnovers committed by UC Irvine in the second half also proved costly, as Cal Poly was able to capitalize on the mistakes and score 15 points off turnovers. Cal Poly's 50 points in the second half were the most they have scored in a half this season, and their 79 total points were their highest output in 10 games.
The CHD Scout prediction was way off, as they predicted UC Irvine to win by 10.5 points, with a final score of 72-82. Instead, Cal Poly pulled off the 6-point upset, winning 79-73. This marks a significant miss for the CHD Scout model, which failed to account for Cal Poly's ability to mount a comeback and outplay UC Irvine in the second half. The model also underestimated the impact of Cal Poly's big men, who outrebounded and outscored their UC Irvine counterparts. The predicted margin of 10.5 points was the largest margin of error for the CHD Scout model this season, and it highlights the need for the model to be more accurate in its predictions.
This upset victory is a huge boost to Cal Poly's resume, as it marks a Quadrant 3 win, their first of the season. UC Irvine, on the other hand, suffers a Quadrant 4 loss, which could hurt their chances of making the tournament. The loss drops UC Irvine's NET ranking to 120, while Cal Poly's win improves their NET ranking to 249. The win also gives Cal Poly a much-needed confidence boost, as they head into the final stretch of the season. With 5 games remaining, Cal Poly want to build on this momentum and try to sneak into the tournament picture. UC Irvine, on the other hand, must regroup and refocus, as they try to bounce back from this tough loss.
Cal Poly's next game is against the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos on February 15, while UC Irvine takes on the Cal State Fullerton Titans on February 17. Both teams want to bounce back from this game, with Cal Poly trying to build on their momentum and UC Irvine trying to regroup and refocus. The game against UC Santa Barbara will be a tough test for Cal Poly, as the Gauchos are currently ranked 2nd in the Big West conference. UC Irvine's game against Cal State Fullerton will also be a challenge, as the Titans are known for their tough defense.