The UC San Diego Tritons are heading to the Bren Events Center to face off against the UC Irvine Anteaters, with both teams looking to bolster their tournament resumes, and UC San Diego has been averaging 69.6 points per game over their last five, while allowing 68.8 points per game, resulting in a slim 0.8 point differential. This trend is concerning for the Tritons, as they have struggled to separate themselves from their opponents, with their last five games being decided by an average margin of just 4.4 points. In their most recent outing, UC San Diego suffered a 17-point loss to Cal State Northridge, scoring just 64 points, their lowest total in the last five games. On the other hand, UC Irvine has been on a tear, averaging 80.6 points per game over their last five, while allowing 73.2 points per game, resulting in a 7.4 point differential. The Anteaters' high-powered offense has been led by their 87-point outburst against Hawai'i, which marked their highest scoring total in the last five games.
Key Matchups
One player to watch in this matchup is UC Irvine's leading scorer, who has been on a hot streak, averaging 22.4 points per game over the last five, including a 28-point performance against Cal State Fullerton. This player's ability to score from both inside and outside the arc will be a challenge for the UC San Diego defense, which has struggled to contain opponents' top scorers, allowing an average of 19.2 points per game to the opposing team's leading scorer over the last five games. Additionally, UC San Diego's point guard has been struggling with turnovers, averaging 3.6 per game over the last five, which could be exploited by UC Irvine's aggressive defense, which has forced an average of 14.2 turnovers per game over the last five. The matchup between these two players matters in determining the outcome of the game, as UC Irvine's offense has been highly efficient, scoring 1.17 points per possession over the last five games, while UC San Diego's defense has allowed 1.05 points per possession over the same stretch.
UC Irvine's recent form has been impressive, with the team winning three of their last five games, including a 13-point victory over Cal State Bakersfield, in which they scored 78 points and allowed just 62. The Anteaters' defense has been stingy, allowing just 73.2 points per game over the last five, and they want to continue this trend against UC San Diego, which has struggled to score against top defenses, averaging just 65.4 points per game against teams that allow fewer than 70 points per game. On the other hand, UC San Diego has been inconsistent, losing two of their last five games, including a 7-point loss to Hawai'i, in which they scored just 67 points and allowed 72. The Tritons' offense has been struggling to find consistency, scoring 69.6 points per game over the last five, and they must find a way to overcome UC Irvine's defense if they hope to come out on top. The Anteaters have been outscoring their opponents by an average of 7.4 points per game over the last five, while the Tritons have been outscoring their opponents by just 0.8 points per game over the same stretch.
CHD Scout Prediction
UC San Diego
70
UC Irvine
74
The CHD Scout prediction has UC Irvine winning by 4.1 points, with a 64% win probability, and this is largely due to the Anteaters' superior offense, which has been averaging 80.6 points per game over the last five. UC Irvine's ability to score from multiple positions and their high-powered offense will be difficult for UC San Diego to contain, especially considering the Tritons' struggles on defense, which have allowed an average of 68.8 points per game over the last five. Additionally, UC Irvine's home-court advantage will play a significant role in the game, as the Anteaters have been nearly unbeatable at the Bren Events Center, with a 12-2 record this season. The Anteaters have been shooting 48.5% from the field and 38.2% from three-point range at home, while the Tritons have been shooting just 43.2% from the field and 34.5% from three-point range on the road.
UC San Diego's best chance of winning will be to slow down the pace of the game and limit UC Irvine's scoring opportunities, as the Anteaters have been averaging 73.5 possessions per game over the last five. The Tritons must be efficient on offense, as they have been averaging just 69.6 points per game over the last five, and they must find a way to overcome UC Irvine's defense, which has been allowing just 73.2 points per game over the same stretch. UC San Diego's point guard matters in this effort, as he has been averaging 4.8 assists per game over the last five, and he must find a way to get his teammates involved in the offense. The Tritons have been averaging 13.4 assists per game over the last five, while the Anteaters have been averaging 15.6 assists per game over the same stretch.
Tournament Stakes
A win for UC Irvine would be a significant boost to their tournament resume, as it would give them a quality win over a team with a similar NET ranking. The Anteaters would be able to strengthen their case for an at-large bid, and they would also be able to improve their seeding in the conference tournament. On the other hand, a loss would be a setback for UC Irvine, as it would give them a bad loss on their resume, and it would also hurt their chances of winning the conference regular season title. For UC San Diego, a win would be a huge upset, and it would give them a much-needed quality win to bolster their tournament resume. The Tritons would be able to improve their NET ranking and strengthen their case for an at-large bid, and they would also be able to gain momentum heading into the conference tournament. A loss, however, would be a significant blow to their tournament hopes, as it would give them another bad loss on their resume, and it would also hurt their chances of making a deep run in the conference tournament.
The outcome of this game will have real consequences for both teams' tournament chances, as a win for either team would give them a much-needed boost to their resume. UC Irvine's win over UC San Diego would give them a 14-4 record in conference play, while a loss would drop them to 13-5. On the other hand, a win for UC San Diego would give them a 10-7 record in conference play, while a loss would drop them to 9-8. The Anteaters have been dominating their opponents in conference play, outscoring them by an average of 8.5 points per game, while the Tritons have been struggling, being outscored by an average of 1.2 points per game. The winner of this game will have a significant advantage in the conference standings, and they will also have a much-needed boost to their tournament resume. The loser, on the other hand, will be facing an uphill climb to make the tournament, and they must win out the rest of their games to have any chance of making the field.