The Cal Poly Mustangs pulled off a stunning 89-79 upset over the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos, with Peter Bandelj leading the charge with 18 points. This victory marks a significant upset, as Cal Poly was ranked 252 in the NET rankings, 131 spots below UC Santa Barbara's ranking of 121. The 10-point margin of victory was a reflection of Cal Poly's dominance in the second half, where they outscored UC Santa Barbara 52-33.
Cal Poly's 52-33 Advantage in Second Half Proves Decisive
The game got off to a strong start for UC Santa Barbara, with the Gauchos taking a 46-37 lead into halftime. However, Cal Poly came out firing in the second half, with Hamad Mousa and Cayden Ward contributing 17 and 14 points, respectively, to the team's total. UC Santa Barbara's Zion Sensley put up an impressive 21 points and 9 rebounds, but it wasn't enough to overcome the Mustangs' second-half surge. Cal Poly's 52 points in the second half were the most they've scored in a single half this season, and it was the difference-maker in the game. At one point, Cal Poly went on a 12-2 run, which helped them take control of the game and never look back.
Peter Bandelj and Zion Sensley were the top performers for their respective teams, with Bandelj scoring 18 points and Sensley putting up 21 points and 9 rebounds. Cal Poly's Hamad Mousa also had a strong game, scoring 17 points and grabbing 7 rebounds, while Cayden Ward added 14 points and 8 rebounds. For UC Santa Barbara, Aidan Mahaney scored 21 points, and Colin Smith contributed 17 points and 6 rebounds. The Gauchos' top performers were unable to overcome the balanced attack of the Mustangs, who had three players score in double figures.
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Final
The key to Cal Poly's victory was their ability to outscore UC Santa Barbara in the second half, where they held a 52-33 advantage. The Mustangs also outrebounded the Gauchos 38-32, with Cayden Ward leading the way with 8 rebounds. Cal Poly shot 47.5% from the field, including 40% from three-point range, while UC Santa Barbara shot 44.1% from the field and 35.7% from three-point range. The Gauchos committed 12 turnovers, which led to 15 points for the Mustangs. Cal Poly's 89 points were the most they've scored against a Division I opponent this season.
The CHD Scout predicted a 73-86 victory for UC Santa Barbara, with a predicted margin of 12.3 points. However, the actual result was a 10-point victory for Cal Poly, making the prediction incorrect. The model failed to account for Cal Poly's strong second-half performance, which was the difference-maker in the game. The Mustangs' ability to outscore UC Santa Barbara by 19 points in the second half was a major factor in the upset, and it highlights the importance of considering multiple factors when making predictions.
This victory was a Quadrant 3 win for Cal Poly, while it was a Quadrant 4 loss for UC Santa Barbara. The win improves Cal Poly's record to 11-16, while UC Santa Barbara falls to 17-9. The loss could have real consequences for UC Santa Barbara's tournament resume, as it drops their record against Quadrant 3 opponents to 2-4. Cal Poly, on the other hand, improves their record against Quadrant 4 opponents to 5-10. The Mustangs' NET ranking is likely to improve significantly, potentially moving them up 20-30 spots.
Cal Poly's next game is against UC Davis on February 18, while UC Santa Barbara will face off against UC Irvine on February 17. Both teams want to build on their recent performances, with Cal Poly riding high after their upset victory and UC Santa Barbara looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss.