The University at Buffalo travels to James A. Rhodes Arena on February 24 to face off against the Akron Zips, with the Bulls looking to pull off a significant upset. Buffalo, despite their recent 2-3 record, has shown flashes of strong play, including a notable win over Massachusetts in their last outing. Meanwhile, Akron has been dominant in the Mid-American Conference, boasting a 13-1 record and a strong 4-1 mark in their last five games. As the regular season winds down, this matchup takes on added importance, particularly for Buffalo, who must win the conference tournament to have any hope of advancing to the NCAA Tournament.
As the heavy favorite, Akron will look to continue their impressive form and assert their dominance over the MAC. However, the Zips are not invincible, and Buffalo will seek to exploit any vulnerabilities they can find. The Bulls will need to bring their best effort and capitalize on any mistakes made by Akron if they hope to pull off the upset. For Akron, a win would be a significant step towards securing the top seed in the conference tournament, but they still have much to prove, particularly in terms of their ability to perform under pressure. A loss, on the other hand, would be a significant setback, and would give Buffalo a much-needed boost in their own quest for a tournament berth.
Averaging 20.3 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his performance often dictating the outcome of Buffalo's games. The team's record stands at 16-11, with a 6-8 mark in the Mid-American Conference, and their recent form has been inconsistent, as evidenced by their last five games, which include a win over Massachusetts and losses to Northern Illinois and Miami (OH). His 45% three-point shooting has been a key factor in Buffalo's offense, which has also relied on , who is contributing 17.9 points per game.
With averaging 14.1 points per game, Buffalo has had a relatively balanced attack, and his ability to score has been complemented by the team's rebounding efforts, led by and , who are averaging 4.5 and 4.4 rebounds per game, respectively. The team's recent losses, including a 70-72 defeat at the hands of Northern Illinois, have highlighted the need for more consistent performances from its key players, including Ryan Sabol, whose 3.5 assists per game have been crucial in setting up scoring opportunities for his teammates, and Daniel Freitag, whose all-around game has been a major factor in Buffalo's successes this season.
Averaging 20.8 points per game, the team's leading scorer is fueled by , whose 5.2 assists per game also make him a key playmaker. His ability to create for himself and others will be crucial in this matchup. With a 22-5 overall record and 13-1 mark in the Mid-American Conference, Akron has established itself as a force to be reckoned with, having won four of its last five games, including a 78-65 victory at Ball State and a 90-73 win at Western Michigan. The team's strong performance is also due in part to the contributions of , whose 7.3 rebounds per game lead the team.
The presence of , who is averaging 12.4 points per game, provides an additional scoring threat, while 's 5.0 rebounds per game and 3.5 assists per game make him a versatile contributor. His 45% three-point shooting is also a valuable asset. Meanwhile, 's 6.3 rebounds per game provide a boost on the glass, and his 8.3 points per game offer additional scoring depth. As Akron looks to continue its strong season, the play of these key contributors will be essential in determining the outcome of this game against Buffalo.
The matchup between Buffalo's Daniel Freitag and Akron's Tavari Johnson will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Both players are high-scoring threats, with Freitag averaging 20.3 points per game and Johnson leading his team with 20.8 points per game. Johnson's ability to create for himself and others, as evidenced by his 5.2 assists per game, will test Freitag's defensive skills and force him to make tough decisions on how to allocate his defensive attention.
If Freitag can contain Johnson and limit his scoring opportunities, it could significantly impact Akron's overall offense. Conversely, if Johnson can exploit any defensive weaknesses and get into a rhythm, it could be a long night for Buffalo. The head-to-head battle between these two talented guards will likely set the tone for the rest of the game and ultimately decide which team emerges victorious.
CHD Scout Prediction
Buffalo
74
Akron
84
The model prediction favors Akron, forecasting an 84-74 victory with an 80.6% win probability. I agree with this assessment, as the significant disparity in NET rankings between the two teams suggests a considerable gap in overall strength. Specifically, Akron's substantially higher NET ranking of #60 compared to Buffalo's #187 indicates a notable difference in the quality of opponents each team has faced and performed against, which leads me to believe that Akron's superior schedule resume will give them the edge they need to secure a win.
As the season enters its final stretch, the implications of this matchup are clear: both Buffalo and Akron are vying for positioning in the Mid-American Conference tournament, with the ultimate goal of claiming the auto-bid. A win for Akron would help solidify their standing in the conference, potentially setting them up for a favorable seed in the tournament, while a loss could create a logjam in the standings and make their path more treacherous. For Buffalo, a victory would be a significant upset, potentially catapulting them up the conference standings and injecting life into their postseason hopes. Given the stark contrast in their NET rankings, this game serves as a testament to the MAC's competitive balance, and ultimately, the team that emerges victorious will take a crucial step towards extending their season, and for Buffalo, a win would be a resounding statement that they can compete with the conference's elite, even if it's just for one night.