As the college basketball season hits its stride, the margin for error is shrinking for teams on the tournament bubble. In the Mid-American Conference, two squads are fighting to bolster their resumes and make a push for the postseason. Tonight, the University at Buffalo and Bowling Green State will face off in a critical contest that could have real consequences for their NCAA Tournament aspirations.
Both teams are currently sitting at 13-7 overall, but their conference records tell a different story. Bowling Green is 4-4 in the MAC, while Buffalo is 3-5, making this game a chance for the Falcons to create some separation. The home team's NET ranking of 108 is also a notable advantage, particularly when compared to the Bulls' 173. However, Buffalo's recent struggles, including a three-game losing streak, have put them in a precarious position. A win on the road against a quality opponent like Bowling Green would be a massive boost to their tournament hopes.
According to the CHD Scout prediction, Bowling Green is favored to win by 7.8 points, with a 76.4% chance of emerging victorious. This is likely due to their impressive record in Quad 4 games, where they're a perfect 7-0. In contrast, Buffalo's Quad 2 record is a lackluster 0-1, and they're 1-1 in Quad 3 matchups. With the Falcons playing at home, they'll look to capitalize on their favorable position and pick up a crucial win.
CHD Scout Prediction
Buffalo
73
Bowling Green
80
Unfortunately, there's no notable player momentum to speak of in this matchup, so it'll be up to the teams' overall strengths and weaknesses to decide the outcome. Given the stakes and the statistics, it's hard to see Buffalo pulling off the upset. The Bulls must find a way to slow down Bowling Green's offense and limit their scoring opportunities if they hope to leave the Stroh Center with a win.
In the end, I predict Bowling Green will come out on top, winning by around 8 points. Their strong record at home, combined with Buffalo's recent struggles, makes them the clear favorite here. If the Falcons can take care of business, they'll be one step closer to building a tournament-worthy resume, while a loss would put Buffalo in an even more precarious position. The pressure is on, and it'll be fascinating to see how these two teams respond to the challenge.