The Boise State Broncos, with a 54 NET ranking, are on the NCAA Tournament bubble, boasting a 3-6 record in Quad 1 games, 3-1 in Quad 2, 6-1 in Quad 3, and 2-0 in Quad 4. Meanwhile, the UNLV Rebels, ranked 139 in NET, are in dire need of quality wins to build a tournament resume, having gone 2-2 in Quad 1, 3-4 in Quad 2, 2-3 in Quad 3, and 4-3 in Quad 4. This matchup is particularly important for the Rebels, as a win would be a significant Quad 1 victory, while the Broncos are looking to solidify their position with a Quad 3 win.
UNLV Rebels' Road Woes Continue with 42.1% Shooting Away from Home
The game is scheduled for February 13, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET, and will be held at the ExtraMile Arena, with the broadcast available on CBS Sports Network.
The UNLV Rebels have had an inconsistent season, with a 12-12 overall record and 7-6 in the Mountain West conference. Over their last five games, they have gone 2-3, with their most recent losses coming against San Diego State and Fresno State. The Rebels have struggled in Quad 1 games, but their ability to compete in these high-level matchups, including a 75-73 win over Wyoming, suggests they have the potential to pull off an upset. With a NET ranking of 139, the Rebels need to capitalize on their remaining opportunities, including this game against the Boise State Broncos, to bolster their tournament resume.
Key Matchups
The Boise State Broncos have fared better, with a 15-9 overall record and 7-6 in the Mountain West conference. They have won four of their last five games, including victories over Air Force and San Jose State. The Broncos' 54 NET ranking and 3-6 Quad 1 record indicate they are on the right track but need to continue performing well to stay in the tournament conversation. Their recent form, including a 78-66 win over Colorado State, demonstrates their capability to dominate games, especially at home, where they have a 10-2 record.
This matchup pits the Broncos' strong defense, which allows just 67.4 points per game, against the Rebels' offense, which averages 74.1 points per game. The Rebels must find a way to penetrate the Broncos' defense, which has held opponents to 41.9% shooting from the field. On the other hand, the Broncos want to exploit the Rebels' vulnerability on the glass, where they have been outrebounded by an average of 2.5 boards per game. The pace of the game will also be crucial, as the Broncos prefer a slower tempo, averaging 65.6 possessions per game, while the Rebels push the pace with 71.4 possessions per game.
CHD Scout Prediction
UNLV
73
Boise State
82
For the UNLV Rebels, Elijah Harkless has been a standout, averaging 16.4 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. Luis Rodriguez has also been consistent, with 13.5 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. On the Boise State side, Tyson Degenhart leads the team with 14.1 points and 5.4 rebounds per game, while Max Rice contributes 12.8 points and 3.5 assists per game. However, without recent player momentum data, it's difficult to pinpoint who's hot or cold coming into this matchup.
Tournament Stakes
The CHD Scout prediction favors the Boise State Broncos, with a predicted score of 82-73 and a 76.3% win probability. This suggests that the Broncos' home advantage and defensive prowess will be too much for the Rebels to overcome. The predicted margin of 8.3 points aligns with the Vegas spread, which has the Broncos as 9.5-point favorites.
A win for the Boise State Broncos would not only bolster their NET ranking but also improve their Quad 3 record, helping to solidify their position on the tournament bubble. For the UNLV Rebels, a win would be a significant boost to their tournament resume, providing a much-needed Quad 1 victory. Given the Rebels' current NET ranking of 139, they need to capitalize on opportunities like this to climb back into the tournament conversation.