The University of Utah Utes and the Arizona State University Sun Devils are set to face off on February 28 at Desert Financial Arena, with both teams seeking to bolster their positions in the conference standings. As the regular season draws to a close, the margins between teams in the middle and lower tiers of the conference are slim, making each game crucial in the pursuit of a favorable seeding in the conference tournament. With neither team in contention for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid, the focus shifts to the conference tournament auto-bid, where a single-elimination format can be unforgiving.
In this context, the matchup between Utah and Arizona State takes on added significance, as both teams look to gain momentum heading into the postseason. Arizona State, with a slightly stronger resume, will aim to protect its home court and solidify its position in the conference standings. Meanwhile, Utah will seek to pull off a road upset and inject life into its conference tournament hopes. The model predicts a closely contested game, with Arizona State holding a narrow edge, but the reality is that small margins often separate evenly matched teams, making this a compelling matchup with significant conference race implications.
Averaging 20.2 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his 3.8 assists per game also making him a key facilitator. His 2.4 rebounds per game, however, highlight the need for support from teammates like , whose 9.2 rebounds per game lead the team. The team's recent form has been inconsistent, with a 71-73 loss to UCF on February 21 and a 61-56 win at West Virginia on February 18 being the most recent results. With a record of 10-17, including 2-12 in the B12 conference, Utah's chances of turning their season around are dwindling.
His 45% three-point shooting has been a valuable asset, but 's scoring has not been enough to propel Utah to consistent success, as evidenced by the team's 1-10 record against Quad 1 opponents. 's 9.3 points per game and 3.5 rebounds per game have provided some support, while Jacob Patrick's 7.2 points per game have been a welcome addition to the team's offense. Despite these individual efforts, the team's overall performance has been lacking, with losses to Cincinnati, Houston, and Kansas in their last five games, and only a single win against West Virginia to show for it.
With a 14-13 overall record, Arizona State enters this matchup having experienced a mix of successes and setbacks. Averaging 17.1 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, while his 5.8 assists per game have been crucial in facilitating the offense. His 3.0 rebounds per game also demonstrate Odum's ability to contribute in multiple facets. The team's recent form has been marked by a loss to Baylor, but they have also secured wins against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, with 's 13.8 points per game and 6.0 rebounds per game playing a significant role in these victories.
In their last five games, Arizona State has gone 3-2, including a win against Utah, which will be looking for revenge in this matchup. The team's scoring has been bolstered by 's 13.4 points per game, complemented by his 3.0 rebounds per game and 1.8 assists per game. 's 5.6 rebounds per game have provided a boost on the glass, while his 7.9 points per game have been a welcome addition to the team's offense. With contributing 7.2 points per game, Arizona State will be looking to capitalize on their recent wins and build momentum against Utah.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Utah's Keanu Dawes and Arizona State's Massamba Diop will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Dawes, a versatile big man, poses a significant threat on the glass, averaging 9.2 rebounds per game. Diop, with his 6.0 rebounds per game, will need to contain Dawes and limit his opportunities for second-chance points. If Diop can neutralize Dawes' rebounding advantage, it could disrupt Utah's offense and force them to rely more heavily on their guards.
The battle between Dawes and Diop will also be crucial in terms of pace and tempo. Dawes' ability to grab rebounds and initiate fast breaks could allow Utah to dictate the pace of the game, while Diop's defensive presence in the paint could help Arizona State slow down the Utah offense. The team that emerges victorious in this head-to-head battle will likely gain a significant advantage in terms of controlling the flow of the game, making this individual matchup a decisive factor in the overall outcome.
CHD Scout Prediction
Utah
74
Arizona State
81
Based on the provided data, I disagree with the model's prediction of an Arizona State victory. While the model suggests a 73.2% win probability for the Sun Devils, I believe Utah will emerge victorious. The primary reason for my dissenting opinion is the significant disparity in the teams' overall performance, as reflected in their NET rankings, which may not be fully accounted for in the model's projection. Specifically, Utah's lower NET ranking of 117 compared to Arizona State's 68 may mask the Utes' potential to pull off an upset, and I believe they will capitalize on this opportunity to secure a win.
Tournament Stakes
As the season winds down, both Utah and Arizona State are keenly aware that their only path to the NCAA Tournament is by winning the Big 12 conference tournament, making every remaining game crucial in terms of conference standings and tournament positioning. A win for Arizona State would help solidify their position in the middle of the pack, potentially setting them up for a more favorable matchup in the conference tournament, while a loss could send them sliding down the standings. For Utah, a road win would be a significant boost, helping them climb out of the cellar and gain momentum heading into the tournament. Given the Quad 1 designation for Utah, a win would be a notable feather in their cap, but regardless of the outcome, the reality is that both programs are staring up at a steep climb to relevance, and a loss for either team will only serve to further underscore the long-term rebuilding efforts that lie ahead, and it's clear that only one of these teams is even remotely trending in the right direction.