The America First Events Center in Cedar City, Utah, will host a Western Athletic Conference matchup between Utah Valley University and Southern Utah University on March 5. As the regular season winds down, both teams are focused on positioning themselves for a strong run in the upcoming conference tournament, their only path to the NCAA Tournament. Utah Valley, with a strong recent record, enters the game as a heavy favorite, but Southern Utah will look to capitalize on any vulnerabilities to pull off an upset.
Despite the odds, Southern Utah has shown flashes of strong play, particularly in their most recent win. To have a chance at an upset, they will need to replicate that form and find ways to exploit any weaknesses in Utah Valley's game. Meanwhile, Utah Valley, despite their favorable position, still needs to prove they can maintain their level of play against lesser opponents and avoid looking ahead to the conference tournament. A win would help them build momentum and confidence heading into the postseason, but a loss would raise questions about their ability to close out games against teams they are expected to beat.
Averaging 15.2 points per game, has been crucial to Utah Valley's success, with his 6.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game making him a versatile threat. The team's leading scorer, backed by 's 12.0 points per game, has propelled Utah Valley to a 22-7 record, including a 12-4 mark in the WAC. His 45% three-point shooting is complemented by ' 11.1 points per game, which has been essential in their recent wins. With a strong supporting cast, including and , Utah Valley has been able to maintain a high level of performance.
In their last five games, Utah Valley has gone 4-1, with wins over Abilene Christian, Tarleton State, UT Arlington, and California Baptist, and a loss to Utah Tech. Trevan Leonhardt's 5.5 assists per game have been vital in these victories, as he has consistently set up his teammates for scoring opportunities. His 5.4 rebounds per game, combined with Jackson Holcombe's 6.7 rebounds per game, have given Utah Valley a strong presence on the glass. Meanwhile, Tyler Hendricks' 1.9 assists per game and Isaac Davis' 10.6 points per game have provided additional scoring punch, while Hayden Welling's 7.9 points per game have been a welcome boost off the bench.
Averaging 13.9 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer in recent games, with his 7.0 rebounds per game also making him a key contributor on the boards. His performance has been crucial in Southern Utah's last five games, which have seen the team go 2-3, including an 81-67 win over Utah Tech and losses to Abilene Christian and Tarleton State. With a record of 10-19, including a 6-10 mark in the WAC, Southern Utah is looking to bounce back from a tough stretch. The team's Quad Record shows a struggle against higher-tier opponents, with a 0-3 mark in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games.
The team's offense has also been bolstered by , whose 14.8 points per game make him a significant threat, and , who is averaging 10.3 points per game. His 45% three-point shooting has been a valuable asset for Southern Utah. Meanwhile, 's 6.0 rebounds per game have been important for the team's interior defense, and Zach Bell's 1.6 assists per game have helped to facilitate the offense. As Southern Utah prepares to face Utah Valley, these players will be key to the team's chances of pulling off an upset, particularly given their recent form, which has seen them win two of their last five games, including a 78-73 victory over UT Arlington.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Utah Valley's Jackson Holcombe and Southern Utah's Jaiden Feroah will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. As two of the most dominant big men in the conference, their head-to-head battle will likely dictate the tempo and flow of the game. Holcombe's ability to score, rebound, and facilitate for his teammates will be tested by Feroah's strong rebounding and scoring prowess. If Holcombe can outmaneuver Feroah in the paint and exploit any defensive weaknesses, Utah Valley may be able to gain a significant advantage.
Feroah's rebounding edge could be a significant factor, as his 7.0 rebounds per game surpass Holcombe's 6.7. However, Holcombe's superior passing ability, with 3.6 assists per game, may allow him to create scoring opportunities for his teammates and neutralize Feroah's rebounding advantage. The outcome of this individual matchup will have a significant impact on the team's overall performance, making it a crucial aspect to watch in this game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Utah Valley
82
Southern Utah
68
Based on the data, the model predicts a decisive Utah Valley victory, 82-68, with a substantial 87.9% win probability. I agree with this assessment, as the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings suggests a considerable gap in their overall strength. Specifically, Utah Valley's notably higher NET ranking of 82, compared to Southern Utah's 272, indicates a substantial difference in their performance against similar opponents, which leads me to believe that Utah Valley will emerge victorious.
Tournament Stakes
As the regular season winds down, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams' conference tournament positioning, with Utah Valley seeking to solidify its standing in the WAC and Southern Utah looking to play spoiler and improve its own seeding. A win for Utah Valley would help maintain its trajectory as a top contender for the WAC's auto-bid, while a loss could create an opening for other teams to climb the standings. For Southern Utah, an upset victory would not only be a much-needed boost to its program's morale but also potentially disrupt the conference's balance of power. With neither team in contention for an at-large bid, the focus is squarely on conference tournament positioning, and this game serves as a crucial litmus test for both programs, ultimately, the outcome will reveal whether Utah Valley's season is one of legitimate conference championship aspirations or just a promising yet hollow campaign.