The Valparaiso University Crusaders and the Bradley University Braves are set to face off at the Enterprise Center on March 6, a matchup that carries significant implications for the Missouri Valley Conference tournament picture. With both teams squarely focused on securing the conference's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, this neutral-site contest takes on added importance. The Crusaders, also known as Valparaiso, enter the game having won four of their last five outings, while the Braves, or Bradley, have gone 3-2 over the same span.
As the conference tournament approaches, the margins between teams in the MVC are razor-thin, and this game serves as a prime example. Valparaiso and Bradley are closely matched, with the outcome likely to be decided by a handful of possessions. The Braves' slight edge in the conference standings and their corresponding NET ranking suggest a narrow advantage, but the Crusaders' recent form and ability to grind out close wins make them a formidable opponent. With the winner gaining a crucial advantage in the pursuit of the MVC's automatic bid, the stage is set for a tense, hard-fought contest that will have significant repercussions for both teams' postseason aspirations.
Averaging 12.8 points per game, has been a crucial contributor to Valparaiso's offense, while his 3.2 rebounds per game demonstrate his ability to make an impact on the glass. The team's leading scorer is supported by , whose 6.7 rebounds per game lead the team, and his 1.5 assists per game showcase his well-rounded skillset. With a record of 18-14, including 11-9 in the Missouri Valley Conference, Valparaiso has shown resilience, particularly in their recent 63-62 win over Indiana State. His 12.2 points per game make JT Pettigrew a key figure in the team's success.
In their last five games, Valparaiso has gone 4-1, with notable victories over Drake and Indiana State, and a prior win against Bradley, their upcoming opponent. 's 2.8 assists per game have been vital in facilitating the team's offense, while 's 1.5 assists per game and 's 7.7 points per game have provided additional support. With his 45% three-point shooting not being a notable stat for any player, the team relies on balanced scoring, including Owen Dease's 12.8 points per game and JT Pettigrew's 12.2 points per game, to outmaneuver their opponents, as seen in their recent wins.
With a 20-11 overall record and 13-7 mark in the Missouri Valley Conference, Bradley enters this matchup having navigated a challenging schedule. Averaging 12.7 points per game, has been a consistent contributor, while his 3.2 rebounds per game demonstrate his ability to make an impact on the glass. The team's leading scorer, , is averaging 17.3 points per game, and his 3.9 rebounds per game underscore his importance to the team's overall performance.
His 45% three-point shooting notwithstanding, 's 2.9 assists per game highlight his role as a facilitator for Bradley. In the team's last five games, which included an 87-78 win over Murray State and a 74-60 victory against Illinois State, Demarion Burch has averaged 9.3 points per game, complementing the scoring of , who is averaging 8.5 points per game to go along with 5.2 rebounds per game. As Bradley prepares to face Valparaiso, the team will look to Jaquan Johnson to continue his strong play and help the team secure a crucial win.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Valparaiso's JT Pettigrew and Bradley's Jaquan Johnson will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Pettigrew's ability to score and rebound will be tested by Johnson's versatility, as the Bradley guard is capable of scoring from both inside and outside while also facilitating for his teammates. If Pettigrew can contain Johnson's scoring and limit his opportunities to create for others, Valparaiso may be able to gain an advantage.
Johnson's playmaking ability, with 3.6 assists per game, also poses a challenge for Pettigrew, who will need to balance his defensive responsibilities with the need to stay out of foul trouble. If Pettigrew can navigate this delicate balance and keep Johnson in check, Valparaiso's chances of winning will increase significantly. Conversely, if Johnson is able to exploit Pettigrew and dictate the tempo of the game, Bradley may be able to pull away and secure a victory.
CHD Scout Prediction
Valparaiso
71
Bradley
76
The model's numbers suggest a Bradley victory, 76-71, with a 66.2% win probability, and I concur with this assessment. I believe Bradley will emerge victorious, specifically due to their superior NET ranking, which indicates a notable difference in strength of schedule and performance between the two teams. With Bradley holding a significant advantage in this regard, ranked 43 spots higher than Valparaiso, I expect this disparity to be a decisive factor in the outcome of the game, ultimately leading to a Bradley win.
Tournament Stakes
As the regular season draws to a close, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams' postseason positioning within the Missouri Valley Conference. A win for Bradley would bolster their chances of securing a higher seed in the conference tournament, potentially setting them up for a more favorable path to the championship game. Meanwhile, Valparaiso is fighting to stay relevant in the conference standings, and a victory would be a crucial step in avoiding a lower seed and the associated difficult tournament draw. With both teams' only path to the NCAA Tournament being the conference tournament auto-bid, the stakes are high, and the trajectory of their respective seasons hangs in the balance - ultimately, the loser of this game will be one step closer to a disappointing end to a season that had once held promise, and will be left to ponder what could have been.