The Illinois State Redbirds are seeking to capitalize on their home-court advantage, having compiled an 8-6 conference record, while the Valparaiso Beacons aim to upset their hosts and improve their 7-7 conference mark. With Illinois State holding a 0-3 Quad 1 record and 2-0 Quad 2 record, this matchup falls under Quad 3 for the Redbirds, whereas it's a Quad 2 opportunity for Valparaiso. The Redbirds have gone 6-5 in Quad 3 games and 7-1 in Quad 4 contests, while the Beacons are 0-2 in Quad 1 games, 0-7 in Quad 2 games, 6-2 in Quad 3 games, and 6-1 in Quad 4 games. Over their last five games, Illinois State has averaged 72.4 points per game, whereas Valparaiso has scored 71.2 points per contest.
Illinois State Redbirds Have Held Opponents to 40% or Lower Shooting from the Field in 12 Games This Season
The game is scheduled for February 12, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET, and will take place at CEFCU Arena, with streaming available on ESPN+. The Illinois State Redbirds are favored by 8.5 points, according to DraftKings, with an over/under of 137.5 points.
The Valparaiso Beacons have struggled to find consistency, compiling a 13-12 overall record and 7-7 conference mark. With a 154 NET ranking, they are in need of quality wins to bolster their tournament resume. Over their last three games, Valparaiso has gone 2-1, with an average scoring margin of -1.3 points per game. The Beacons have shot 43.5% from the field and 34.2% from beyond the arc, while allowing opponents to shoot 44.1% from the field and 35.1% from three-point range. Valparaiso's recent form has seen them score 74.3 points per game, while conceding 73.3 points per contest.
Key Matchups
The Illinois State Redbirds have fared better, boasting a 15-8 overall record and 8-6 conference mark. Their 89 NET ranking indicates a stronger resume, but they still require quality wins to solidify their tournament position. Illinois State has gone 2-3 over their last five games, with an average scoring margin of -0.4 points per game. The Redbirds have shot 45.1% from the field and 36.4% from beyond the arc, while allowing opponents to shoot 42.5% from the field and 33.5% from three-point range. Illinois State's home record stands at 9-2, with an average scoring margin of 10.4 points per game at CEFCU Arena.
CHD Scout Prediction
Valparaiso
65
Illinois State
78
The Illinois State Redbirds and Valparaiso Beacons have distinct styles, with Illinois State averaging 73.1 points per game and Valparaiso scoring 71.5 points per contest. The Redbirds have a significant edge in rebounding, averaging 37.4 boards per game compared to Valparaiso's 32.9. Illinois State also boasts a higher free-throw percentage, shooting 74.2% from the charity stripe, while Valparaiso has made 69.5% of their free-throw attempts. The pace of the game matters, as Illinois State prefers a slower tempo, averaging 66.4 possessions per game, whereas Valparaiso has averaged 69.1 possessions per contest.
For Valparaiso, guard Kobe King has been in fine form, averaging 15.6 points per game over his last five contests, while shooting 46.2% from the field and 40% from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Illinois State's forward, Seneca Knight, has scored 12.8 points per game over his last five outings, while grabbing 6.4 rebounds per contest. The Redbirds' guard, Luke Kasubke, has also been impressive, averaging 11.4 points per game over his last five games, while shooting 44.7% from the field and 38.5% from three-point range.
Tournament Stakes
The CHD Scout prediction favors Illinois State, with a predicted score of 78-65 in favor of the Redbirds, and an 86.2% win probability. This prediction is based on Illinois State's strong home record and significant statistical edges, including rebounding and free-throw shooting. The Redbirds' ability to control the tempo and limit Valparaiso's scoring opportunities matters in securing a victory.
A win for Illinois State would bolster their tournament resume, particularly given the Quad 3 designation for this matchup. The Redbirds' 0-3 Quad 1 record and 2-0 Quad 2 record mean they need to capitalize on opportunities like this to improve their NET ranking and tournament chances. For Valparaiso, a victory would be a significant upset, given the Quad 2 designation, and would greatly enhance their tournament prospects. The Beacons' 0-2 Quad 1 record and 0-7 Quad 2 record make this game a vital opportunity to secure a quality win.